In Episode 316 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan about this week’s FOMC meeting and what the Federal Reserve rate decision could signal about the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Will it be heralded as the long anticipate Fed pivot or seen as yet another head fake on our way toward “higher for longer,” serving as a drag on equity valuations and a headwind to economic growth?

Because Andy’s analysis is largely quantitative and flows based, he looks at not only what policymakers and investors are saying, but also what they’re doing, what they’re buying, and how they’re buying it. This holds important information for the direction of bond prices, equities (and other risk asset), inflation, and economic growth, all of which Constan and Kofinas discuss in the second part of their conversation. The two also run through different scenarios surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision, the significance of Janet Yellen’s decision to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) using largely T-Bill issuance as opposed to longer duration bonds, and why the long-anticipated recession has failed to materialize despite the most aggressive interest rate increases in 40 years.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 06/13/2023