Believability-Weighted Decision Making

In the face of great uncertainty, how do you make decisions? Can you really apply the lessons of the past to the present and the future, to navigate seemingly new situations and get what you want out of business and life? By deeply understanding cause-effect relationships -- clearly expressed, shared with others, overlaid with data, back-tested, modified -- you can build a set of principles for dealing with the realities of whatever situation you're in, observes Ray Dalio, in this episode from 2018 and in conversation with a16z's  Alex Rampell and Sonal Chokshi, 

Dalio's book Principles: Life and Work originated as an internal company document that was posted online years ago and has been shared widely since. His insights on how to create your own recipe book to draw upon in moments of great change is as relevant as ever. The conversation covers everything from the differences between private and public investing, and between startups and big companies -- to questions of getting timing right, how people, teams, organizations, and even nation-states can evolve through principles like "believability-weighted idea meritocracies," and more.