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Mike Green: Passive Stock Market Edifice Put To The Test As Recession A Near Certainty

Forward Guidance

NOTE

Market Dynamics: The Power of Passive Investing and Momentum

Overnight trading in less liquid markets leads to significant stock price gaps, driven by passive investing behaviors that treat the last market price as the optimal price. This has diminished traditional cautious trading strategies, wherein institutional investors would wait for price corrections before buying. As a result, passive flows reinforce upward price volatility, especially in times of synthetic outflows from equities due to declining bond values. Despite economic factors suggesting a downturn, including high costs for mega-cap companies and recession fears, the enduring low unemployment rate has contributed to equity market resilience. Additionally, investor momentum has shifted focus onto leading stocks, further consolidating market performance around a few key players and causing a narrowing market. Hedge funds have exampled this behavior, favoring top stocks while betting against smaller firms, leading to misinterpretations of broader economic trends and potential future corrections.

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