The Threshold of AI Revolution

The significant impact of AI won't be when machines surpass humans at everything, but when they outperform us in most jobs, reducing the need for human labor. An even more drastic change occurs when AIs surpass us in AI research itself. Currently, research progress is limited by the human R&D cycle. When AI takes over, this cycle can accelerate dramatically, potentially leading to an 'intelligence explosion'. The critical threshold, therefore, isn't AI surpassing humans at every task, but rather at programming and general learning, allowing them to independently improve at any skill.