Understanding the Fragility of Economic Indicators

Economic indicators like non-farm payrolls and GDP calculations may be fragile and inaccurate due to the reliance on surveys and extrapolation. For example, non-farm payroll data may miss capturing individuals in the workforce sidelines or the gig economy, leading to a distorted view of the economy. Similarly, GDP calculations, based on what people, companies, and governments spend along with exports, can be influenced by interest rates affecting consumer spending habits - with lower rates encouraging spending and higher rates encouraging saving.