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Beware the Hidden Risks in Passive Markets
The increasing passiveness of markets presents significant challenges, notably the susceptibility to large flows that can dramatically alter market conditions. The reliance on the derivatives market complicates the trading dynamics of underlying indexes, creating a lack of clarity about when and where market disruptions may occur. Often, the origins of such disruptions will be hidden from view, potentially stemming from unexpected sources within the system, leading to widespread confusion as market participants react. While passive investment strategies distort market behaviors, acknowledging this reality does not necessarily lead to immediate changes in market structure. Awareness of passive flows, particularly in nuanced trades like the carry trade, offers vital insights for analysis. Furthermore, the returns from investments may not solely benefit shareholders, as intermediaries within the ETF complex also draw profits from these transactions.