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BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans
Forward Guidance
Diagnosing False Recession Signals
Predicting recessions accurately is challenging, and false signals can occur. The speaker suggests that calling the cycle accurately is difficult and there is no shortcut to predicting recessions. Rather than relying solely on models or indicators like yield curves, focusing on narratives, distribution of risks, and recession types can provide a clearer picture. By considering real economy recessions, policy-induced recessions, and financial crises as the three primary types of downturns, one can better understand and potentially avoid false recession alarms.
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