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Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Assessing Probabilities and Personal Consequences
Pretending to bet money helps in assessing probabilities effectively. Tying personal consequences to the bet makes individuals more realistic by shifting their mindset towards considering the likelihood of outcomes. The Equivalent Bet Method involves offering a choice between a guaranteed amount if a statement is true and a gamble with certain odds, to determine the individual's true confidence in the statement's validity.
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