In poker, what we do when someone mighs is put him on a range. You can't possibly know exactly what they're going to do or what cards are holding. So you evaluate the story, ind lige to their past actions. What do they do before the flop, on the flop? And you, you basely come to a assessment of what is likely based on their story. Now take potons story, like frieberg said, he's never backed down in his life, from anything? Ah, he has said this war is axidential. Maybe it is, but welstill, it could still be a bluff.