Understanding Total Fertility Rate

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The total fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman in her lifetime. It serves as a useful measure to compare fertility across different regions and time periods. Despite the common belief that being better able to provide for children might lead to having more of them, fertility rates worldwide are declining. Despite efforts to reverse this trend, policy interventions have proven ineffective. In the upcoming episodes, Jennifer Shuba, a political scientist and demographer, will discuss the global perspective on population trends, the impact of fertility rates on societies, and how these rates correlate with economic development.

For a long time, the story about the world’s population was that it was growing too quickly. There were going to be too many humans, not enough resources, and that spelled disaster. But now the script has flipped. Fertility rates have declined dramatically, from about five children per woman 60 years ago to just over two today. About two-thirds of us now live in a country or area where fertility rates are below replacement level. And that has set off a new round of alarm, especially in certain quarters on the right and in Silicon Valley, that we’re headed toward demographic catastrophe.

But when I look at these numbers, I just find it strange. Why, as societies get richer, do their fertility rates plummet?

Money makes life easier. We can give our kids better lives than our ancestors could have imagined. We don’t expect to bear the grief of burying a child. For a long time, a big, boisterous family has been associated with a joyful, fulfilled life. So why are most of us now choosing to have small ones?

I invited Jennifer D. Sciubba on the show to help me puzzle this out. She’s a demographer, a political scientist and the author of “8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death and Migration Shape Our World.” She walks me through the population trends we’re seeing around the world, the different forces that seem to be driving them and why government policy, despite all kinds of efforts, seems incapable of getting people to have more kids.

Mentioned:

“Would You Have Four Kids if It Meant Never Paying Taxes Again?” by Jessica Grose

“Are Men the Overlooked Reason for the Fertility Decline?” by Jessica Grose

“If We Want More Babies, Our ‘Profoundly Anti-Family’ System Needs an Overhaul” by Jessica Grose

Book Recommendations:

Extra Life by Steven Johnson

The Bet by Paul Sabin

Reproductive States edited by Rickie Solinger and Mie Nakachi

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Mixing by Isaac Jones. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Jessica Grose and Sonia Herrero.