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The Worst (Or Possibly Best) Investment Podcast EVER | Le Shrub

Hidden Forces

NOTE

Thinking in Terms of Probabilities and Risk Management

That the speaker is not a professional investor but has developed some skill sets and learned important lessons from smart people in the field./nOne of the most important lessons is to think in terms of likelihoods and risk management, rather than binary outcomes./nIn merger arbitrage, it is better to invest in a deal with a 99% probability of making one at a 10 to 1 risk than a 50-50 deal with a 1 to 1 risk./nEvent-driven investing focuses on probabilities, risk management, and avoiding black swan events.

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