Value Long-Term Bets over Short-Term Gains

Understanding expected value is crucial in making high-potential investments, where low-probability bets can yield significant returns over time, especially when aggregated through funds. This concept extends beyond finance to assessing risks in various scenarios, such as geopolitical tensions or technological developments, despite their low probabilities of occurrence but severe consequences. Moreover, adopting a long-term investment perspective is essential. While many are drawn to quick returns, successful ventures often require patience, as evidenced by companies like SpaceX, which had prolonged timelines before realizing profitability. Recognizing the value of the future and reducing short-term focus can lead to better outcomes in both investing and personal decision-making.