Caution: Missteps May Ignite Regional Conflict

Iran has been engaged in a low-level conflict with Israel alongside the Gaza war, with the potential for minor conflicts to escalate into a larger regional war. Miscalculations by any involved parties, such as Israel or Hezbollah, could lead to a situation where all actors are drawn into a significant confrontation. Although currently, there has been restraint from escalating the conflict, the possibility exists that a full-scale war could divert Israel's resources and energy, thus making it more inclined to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. Such a regional war could be advantageous for Hamas and Sinwar, as a weaker Israeli state would likely lead to more favorable ceasefire negotiations that support Hamas's long-term survival.