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Measuring Carry
Measuring carry in bonds involves considering the term structure and the implied appreciation of yields. The price appreciation becomes part of the carry measure. The carry measure also includes financing costs. Using the forward rate instead of today's rate makes more sense as it accounts for expected monetary policy. However, it's important to note that these expectations may still be wrong at turning points. Last year, using today's yield curve to inform the carry measure resulted in inaccurate metrics as it didn't price in the expected rate hikes. Therefore, using the forward rate is a crucial lesson learned for measuring carry in bonds.