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Scott Sumner
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Understanding Asset Bubbles and Efficient Market Hypothesis
Asset bubbles, like the dot-com bubble or the rise of Bitcoin, highlight the challenge of identifying overpriced speculative assets in an efficient market. In a world of efficient markets, the majority of potential investments may go to zero while a few skyrocket, making it difficult to distinguish between bubbles and potentially profitable investments. This uncertainty leads to people's strong beliefs in the existence of asset bubbles based on confirmation bias.
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