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On The Tape cover image

Unthought Known Path of Rate Cuts with Luke Gromen

On The Tape

NOTE

Restructuring Sovereign Debt: A Binary Outcome

The current financial landscape reflects a sovereign-level restructuring scenario influenced by historical debt crises. Past crises involved transferring losses from equity holders to bondholders, leading to significant equity devaluation, which allowed recovery. Today, the urgent need to refinance $15.5 trillion in debt over the next three years presents a critical challenge. A potential return to zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve won't alleviate the already high interest expenses from prior rate cuts. This situation indicates an impending binary outcome, where financial strategies must adapt to the escalating debt and its implications on equity and management restructuring.

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