Computer Simulation of a Pandamic

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Computer simulations of pandemics often fail to anticipate human behavior. The first time we did this, we had eight thousand people. The next time, 20 thousand people. We're living through other complicating factors like supply chain disruptions or misinformation theories spreading on social media. And if we can ask you questions, just give us your intuitive response based on what you know about yourself. What are you likely to do? So you've been told to isolate for two weeks. Under what circumstances do you violate this this order? Like, disobey these instructions?

The future grows out of the present, but it manages to consistently surprise us. How can we get better at anticipating and preparing for what the future can be like? Jane McGonigal started out as a game designer, working on the kinds of games that represent miniature worlds with their own rules. This paradigm provides a useful way of thinking about predicting the future: imagining changes in the current world, then gaming out the consequence, allowing real people to produce unexpected emergent outcomes. We talk about the lessons learned that anyone can use to better prepare their brain for the future to come.

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Jane McGonigal received her Ph.D. in performance studies from the University of California, Berkeley. She is currently a writer and Director of Games Research and Development at the Institute for the Future. She teaches a course at Stanford on How to Think Like a Futurist. She has developed several games, including SuperBetter, a game she designed to improve health and resilience after suffering from a concussion. Her recent book is Imaginable: How to See the Future Coming and Feel Ready for Anything–Even Things That Seem Impossible Today.

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