Context vs Facts: Finding Truth in Cycles and Lines

Economies run in cycles, people forecast in straight lines. Don't underestimate the harm you inflict on yourself. Good luck is easy to identify when you fail but easy to ignore when you succeed. Men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy. We obsess over external harms while ignoring self-inflicted ones. Control is important. Camping can be fun even when cold, homelessness is miserable even when warm. Conviction often ignores facts. In school, long papers are required but in the real world, attention spans are short. Learn from history to respect others' delusions.