Predicting Outcomes and the Limitations of Data with Examples

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#613: Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence

The Tim Ferriss Show

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Predicting Outcomes and the Limitations of Data with Examples

Predicting future outcomes based on data is often unreliable and unpredictable. While we can make educated guesses and get close to the actual outcome on average, it is impossible to accurately predict events like the location of Saturn, the value of Bitcoin, or future crashes or recessions. People often turn to experts to know what the future will be like, but the reality is that experts can only rely on past data and extrapolation, which may not always hold true. This reliance on data and science can sometimes mislead and create authorities that may be misleading. It is important to recognize the limitations of data and avoid putting blind trust in these predictions.

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Russ Roberts on Lessons from F.A. Hayek and Nassim Taleb, Decision-Making Insights from Charles Darwin, The Dangers of Scientism, Wild Problems in Life and the Decisions That Define Us, Learnings from the Talmud, The Role of Prayer, and The Journey to Transcendence | Brought to you by Athletic Greens all-in-one nutritional supplement, Eight Sleep’s Pod Pro Cover sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating, and Pique premium pu’er tea crystals. More on all three below.

Russ Roberts (@EconTalker) is the President of Shalem College in Jerusalem and the John and Jean De Nault Research Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Roberts is interested in making complicated ideas understandable. He founded and hosts the award-winning weekly podcast EconTalk: Conversations for the Curious—with more than 800 episodes available in the archives. Past guests include Christopher Hitchens, Martha Nussbaum, Michael Lewis, Angela Duckworth, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. His two rap videos on the ideas of John Maynard Keynes and F.A. Hayek have more than thirteen million views on YouTube.

His latest book, Wild Problems: A Guide to the Decisions That Define Us, explores the challenges of using rationality when facing big life decisions. He is also the author of Gambling With Other People’s Money,How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life, The Price of Everything, The Invisible Heart, and The Choice.

Please enjoy!

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[06:36] How Russ’ father chose to cultivate fatherhood.

[10:45] Does quality time demand quantity time?

[12:31] What does Shalem mean?

[14:10] What’s wrong with scientism?

[20:56] The curious task of economics, according to F.A. Hayek.

[23:18] What is a Hayekian?

[25:09] What prompted Russ to write Wild Problems?

[29:05] How Russ’ ideas about data have changed over the years.

[33:04] Making decisions: Charles Darwin vs. Homer vs. Russ.

[43:30] What makes people ideal life partners?

[52:19] Marriage as a form of growing up.

[56:53] Life lessons from Bill Belichick.