Argument Against Existential Probability Reasoning

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There is a chance that opening a jar of spaghetti sauce can release a virulent pathogen that could harm the ecosystem.
Even though it's unlikely, the consequences could be dire.
People are unlikely to stop opening jars of pasta sauce based on this argument.
We struggle to accurately assess the risk of harm versus the probability of that harm occurring.
It is important to be more specific when discussing the potential risks of AI extinguishing the human race.

Welcome to the July 2023 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreons, whittle them down to a more manageable number -- based primarily on whether I have anything interesting to say about them, not whether the questions themselves are good -- and sometimes group them together if they are about a similar topic.

We're experimenting with a new benefit for Patreon supporters: short video (or audio-only) reflections by me on the podcast that just happened. If you've been wondering whether to join up, this could be the time.

Blog post with questions and transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/07/03/ama-july-2023/

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