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Michael Howell: "QE Is Coming Back, Big Time"
Forward Guidance
The Dynamic of the Equity Market
Equity markets have a sweet spot around 2% inflation based on a simple regression analysis./nDeflation (negative inflation) can viciously derate the market, while higher inflation also causes derating./nFully inflation can lead to market rewriting upwards./nUnderstanding the dynamic of inflation and its impact on equity markets is key./nNY Fed and Philly Fed PMI questionnaires with the price is paid subcomponent can predict the market's year-on-year change in the S&P./nFalling inflation and increased liquidity can drive up PEs and boost the market./nOther central banks, such as China, will be adding liquidity.
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