Understanding Electoral Polarization

The impending election is anticipated to be the most polarized in terms of gender, with significant differences between candidate support among men and women. Younger voters are likely to favor Kamala Harris, whereas older voters are expected to lean towards Donald Trump. Interestingly, traditional ethnic divisions are fading, as Trump has effectively attracted a notable share of African-American and Hispanic voters, particularly among black and Latino men. Analyzing this complex electoral landscape requires more than just advanced models; instead, it necessitates a focus on critical swing counties, especially in Pennsylvania, where tight margins of victory highlight the nuanced dynamics at play. Northampton stands out as a pivotal area, having flipped between candidates in the last two elections.