How Do You Gauge Policy Lags?

An interest rate hike takes some time to filter into the real economy now that rates are higher and presumably closer to, you know, neutral. One of the biggest mistakes they made in the 19 seventies at the fed, is they thought that inflation was on its way down but it flared back up again before they had quashed it. And so that, to me, is something that i'm very focused on. We can't repeat that mistake. The most costly mistake we'll make is if we get fooled thinking, oh, we've got inflation licked now let's go cut interustrats because the economy is showing signs of weakening. That has a potential really dramatically negative effect on our