4min snip

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Nouriel Roubini's Vision for a New Safe Haven Asset

Odd Lots

INSIGHT

60/40 Portfolio Failure

  • Traditional 60/40 portfolios rely on a negative correlation between stocks and bonds, with bonds acting as a safe haven.
  • This correlation breaks down when inflation rises, as both stock and bond prices can fall simultaneously.
  • The assumption of low, stable inflation underpins the 60/40 portfolio's effectiveness.
  • If inflation rises and bond yields increase, long-duration treasuries, typically a defensive asset, become a source of loss.
  • This necessitates a search for alternative assets that can hedge against inflation and other systemic risks.
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