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Living with Exponential Change (with Azeem Azhar)

EconTalk

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The Origins and Application of Wright’s law

Reichsler, which emerged in 1936, states that for every doubling in cumulative production, the per unit cost would decline by about 15% due to learning rates. Reichsler, revived in the 1960s as the learning curve by the Boston Consulting Group, highlights that with experience, processes become more optimized. Reichsler can predict cost declines in industries such as semiconductors more effectively than Moore's Law, and it can also be applied to technologies like solar panels and lithium-ion batteries. The essence of Reichsler lies in the concept that as individuals gain experience and improve processes, costs decrease, as illustrated by the example of baking bread during the COVID lockdowns.

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