Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) - Building AGI, Alignment, Future Models, Spies, Microsoft, Taiwan, & Enlightenment
Dwarkesh Podcast
AI's Impact on GDP and the Path to AGI
By 2030, the impact of AI on GDP is difficult to predict due to uncertainty in its economic value. A possible cause for AI's disappointing real-world impact could be reliability issues, which would hinder its economic value. Current paradigms in AI, such as reinforcement learning, may not directly lead to AGI, but the next paradigm is likely to integrate various past ideas. There's a challenge to the claim that AI's next token prediction cannot surpass human performance as it initially seems to only imitate and copy human behavior.
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