AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Predictions on Civil War, Economic Indicators, and Human Behavior
Predictions of economic downturn are seductive and consistent due to the human tendency to catastrophize, exacerbated by institutional imperatives and media amplification. People often underestimate the corrective forces of human behavior and fail to appreciate cyclical ebbs and flows in forecasting. The tendency to quickly go to dark places stems from evolutionary survival instincts, leading to extreme extrapolations in economic predictions that eventually get corrected as new information emerges.