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Is Goldilocks Going To End Soon? | Darius Dale
On The Margin
Analysis of Asset Markets and Predictions for a Potential Crash in 2024
Stocks, bonds, and commodities are under scrutiny for the next 12 months. Despite previous mistakes, the speaker has learned and improved their models. Sickle growth expectations are driving the stock market, but bearish narratives loom. However, if the economy remains stable, there could be a positive shock to growth. Historically, leading up to recessions, the S&P 500 has seen significant returns, doubling the average annual return. The market's behavior during a recession is less favorable, with median returns being negative. Though the market is not highly overvalued, it is still considered overvalued. A blow off top is anticipated before a crash, which could occur in the first half or middle of 2024.
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