Populist Moment and Incumbent Challenges

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In a populist moment, incumbents face challenges in seeking reelection as voters assess their well-being over the past years without necessarily linking it to the incumbent. Incumbents bear responsibility for negative events during their term, while positive occurrences are often attributed to them. The current scenario of various issues like high prices, border problems, and conflicts hinders incumbents from running on a stability platform. This moment favors outsider candidates like Trump, who can appeal to the public's desire for change and present themselves as strong leaders to address prevailing issues. Trump's potential approach of attributing all problems to Biden and positioning himself as the solution could resonate with voters, focusing on the need for order, which may carry undertones of illiberalism. The difference between parties lies in their proposed solutions to the country's challenges.

Joe Biden’s presidency has been dominated by two foreign policy crises: the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The funding the United States has provided in those wars — billions to both Ukraine and Israel — has drawn backlash from both the right and the left. And now, as the conflicts move into new stages with no clear end game, Biden’s policies are increasingly drawing dissent from the center.

Richard Haass is an icon of the U.S. foreign policy establishment. He served as the president of the Council on Foreign Relations for 20 years and currently writes the newsletter Home & Away. He’s recently been making the case that our foreign policy is insufficiently independent — that we’ve become captured by allies that have interests that diverge from our own. His view of this moment is a signal of larger shifts that could be coming in the U.S. foreign policy consensus.

In this conversation, we discuss why he thinks America’s current strategy on both Ukraine and Israel is untenable, what he thinks the north star for our strategy in both cases should be, the Republican Party’s 180-degree turn from internationalism to isolationism, what America’s biggest national security threat really is and more.

Mentioned:

“The Two-State Mirage” by Marc Lynch and Shibley Telhami

Book Recommendations:

The World That Wasn’t by Benn Steil

Sparks by Ian Johnson

Diplomats at War by Charles Trueheart

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris with Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing from Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.