Beware the Winner's Curse in Acquisitions

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Acquisitions often carry a negative reputation due to the phenomenon known as the winner's curse, where the acquiring company may overestimate the value of the target firm, leading to poor investment decisions. This mindset extends beyond mergers and acquisitions, manifesting in areas like project scheduling, where the most optimistic estimations can lead to consistent delays. Companies undertaking complex projects may be overly optimistic, believing they can achieve results that others deemed unfeasible. This highlights the interplay of confidence and reality in competitive scenarios, underscoring the risks of overestimation in market activities.

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss the acquisition landscape, how to write great business memos, and why it's hard to monetize a successful ChatGPT wrapper. Get Harmonic: Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo.

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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

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SPONSOR: Harmonic Learn why Craft, Bedrock, NEA and 100s more trust Harmonic’s data to source deals. Harmonic is the most complete startup database, finding new companies as soon as they incorporate and tracking them through IPO. Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) Negative reputation of acquisitive companies

(11:50) Sponsors: Harmonic | Turpentine

(13:39) Importance of research and its competitive edge

(21:37) Exploring the dynamics of unions and corporate strategies

(26:11) How to write a great memo

(32:49) Challenge of monetizing AI services

(37:49) AI's impact on education and standardized testing