The deployment of capital in training models for AI raises concerns about the sustainability of being the first to train models and whether the costs will significantly reduce in the future. The rapid acceleration of model development and training, coupled with cost reductions, poses a challenging investment exercise. The business models must have an advantage of being the first to market and generating new data to maintain a lead. However, it is uncertain when the market and technology will reach a tipping point, making it difficult to invest in technology. Instead, building a sustaining advantage in the market, by being first, building a customer base, and accelerating features, seems more viable. This applies particularly to the application and tools layer, as opposed to competing at the lower stack levels that require significant capital investment. Despite the coordination benefits of cost reductions, making money in this field currently appears unlikely. Open source solutions are also brought into question.
(0:00) Bestie intros: Chamath flies public + Poker recap
(8:12) FED pauses hikes momentarily, IPO window status, state of the market
(25:10) Film, cold plunge, and sauna talk
(33:25) AI's impact on tech and growth stocks surging, Google's position, AI's "$20T question"
(50:27) Jay Trading beating the market, how Brad formulates and sizes public bets, how GPs should handle distributions, CalPERS mistakes
(1:04:22) Reddit moderators in revolt and how this issue might reshape the future of social apps
(1:15:11) Funding landscape for AI startups is overheating: Mistral's $100M+ Seed round, importance of constraints, and more
(1:44:17) Science corner: Understanding the Bill Gates-funded mosquito project in Colombia
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Intro Music Credit:
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Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/intel-talks-be-anchor-investor-arm-ipo-source-2023-06-13
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/softbanks-arm-registers-blockbuster-us-ipo-sources-2023-04-29
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/databricks-hits-1-billion-in-annual-sales-while-adding-data-warehouse-tool
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/nvidias-acquisition-of-arm-cancelled-due-to-significant-regulatory-challenges
https://bard.google.com
https://coda.io/@presh-dineshkumar/jay-trading
https://www.ft.com/content/86b49e10-3dd2-4427-b70b-993bad47b061
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/calpers-to-increase-venture-capital-investments-despite-tech-turmoil.html
https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/12/23755974/reddit-subreddits-going-dark-private-protest-api-changes
https://reddark.untone.uk
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/technology/reddit-ai-openai-google.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20554441
https://digiday.com/media/twitters-third-party-app-problem
https://www.wired.com/2015/07/reddit-ceo-ellen-pao-steps-down-huffman-replacement
https://www.platformer.news/p/meta-is-building-a-decentralized
https://www.ft.com/content/cf939ea4-d96c-4908-896a-48a74381f251
https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1668650915505803266
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1523379957/oculus-rift-step-into-the-game
https://openai.com/blog/function-calling-and-other-api-updates
https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1667616444996104196
https://www.womenshealthnetwork.com/hormonal-imbalance/sunscreen-ingredients-that-mess-with-your-hormones