S7 E9: At the Tipping Point
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Standard Run & Collapse
- The MIT team's "Standard Run" simulation, based on 1970s data, showed continued industrial and population growth leading to rapid economic expansion and increased pollution.
- By 2020, the planet's condition becomes critical due to pollution.
- Around 2040-2050, civilized life as we know it ceases to exist in this scenario, due to the collapse of the industrial system, not necessarily the Earth system, due to overconsumption and pollution.
- Further simulations with varying parameters like unlimited resources, faster technological progress, and switching to nuclear energy showed that growth caused resource depletion or excessive pollution, resulting in a collapse.
- Collapse resulted from overshooting Earth's capacity, similar to the Kaibab deer.
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