Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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Transcript:
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OUTLINE:
(00:00) β Introduction
(13:28) β DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
(35:02) β Low cost of training
(1:01:19) β DeepSeek compute cluster
(1:08:52) β Export controls on GPUs to China
(1:19:10) β AGI timeline
(1:28:35) β Chinaβs manufacturing capacity
(1:36:30) β Cold war with China
(1:41:00) β TSMC and Taiwan
(2:04:38) β Best GPUs for AI
(2:19:30) β Why DeepSeek is so cheap
(2:32:49) β Espionage
(2:41:52) β Censorship
(2:54:46) β Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
(3:05:17) β OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
(3:24:25) β NVIDIA
(3:28:53) β GPU smuggling
(3:35:30) β DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
(3:45:59) β AI megaclusters
(4:21:21) β Who wins the race to AGI?
(4:31:34) β AI agents
(4:40:16) β Programming and AI
(4:47:43) β Open source
(4:56:55) β Stargate
(5:04:24) β Future of AI