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The Possibility of Human Extinction
"Live Players" with Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg
Challenging Population Projections and Future Declines
Global population projections are being called into question, with the reality suggesting that we may face significant population declines rather than the anticipated increases. Various interventions by countries to manage population growth have failed to yield durable results. The possibility of world populations falling to 6 or 5 billion is becoming credible, particularly in regions like South Asia, where estimates indicate fewer than 1 billion Indians by the century's end. The portrayal of population surges in countries like Nigeria is flawed due to state-level exaggeration driven by federal funding incentives linked to population size, resulting in unreliable data. Similarly, China's population figures are likely inflated as the government minimizes the long-term effects of the one-child policy, which has left lasting repercussions on fertility rates. Current global estimates suggest a population of around 8 billion, but there's skepticism about reaching 9 billion, and it is believed that any peak will be short-lived before a decline ensues. This perspective starkly contrasts with UN projections, which often depict fertility trends stabilizing; such forecasts are viewed as fictional and overly optimistic, neglecting the more drastic downward trends in population growth. Ultimately, the belief that populations will naturally stabilize lacks a basis in the observed realities of demographic changes.
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