
Behind the Memo: Sea Change
The Memo by Howard Marks
Investing in a low return world
From October 2012 to February 2020, I gave a speech titled 'Investing in a Low Return World.' During this time, the returns on debt fixed income bonds were historically low, with cash at zero, treasuries at one, high-grade bonds at two or three, and high-yield bonds at four or five percent. These returns were not helpful for institutional investors, especially those with defined benefit pension plans that require roughly seven percent returns. However, the situation has now reversed, with inflation at a forty-year high. The Federal Reserve is being restrictive to combat inflation, but this may lead to a recession. Obtaining money for corporations has become more difficult and expensive, and the credit mechanism is experiencing issues with hung bridge loans and hesitant buyers and holders.