Vanishing Gradients cover image

Episode 23: Statistical and Algorithmic Thinking in the AI Age

Vanishing Gradients

NOTE

Understanding Long Tail Distributions for High-Impact Events

Long tail distributions, especially for high-impact events like disasters, extend much farther out than expected, making them hard for intuition to grasp. Visualizing these distributions on a log log scale can help in comprehending very small probabilities and high impact events. When using a typical distribution for long-tailed data, the underestimation of extreme values can lead to catastrophic shortcomings in predictions. While using an appropriate model can improve predictions for rare events, the fundamental limitation lies in the lack of sufficient data to accurately estimate the probabilities of such events, making some occurrences in the tails of distributions inherently unpredictable.

00:00
Transcript
Play full episode

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
App store bannerPlay store banner