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Azeem Azhar's Exponential View cover image

Azeem’s 2024 Trends: AI, Energy, and Decentralization

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

NOTE

Rapid Transition to Electric Vehicles and Stable Electricity Prices

The increasing consumer choice in electric vehicles, driven by competition and innovation, has led to lower prices and extended driving range. Declining battery pack prices and the emergence of cheaper alternatives like sodium ion batteries are further driving down EV prices. Technology transitions typically follow an S curve and the transition to electric vehicles may take less than a decade once roughly 5% of all new car sales are electric. The transition will have a profound impact on stable and declining electricity prices, allowing for longer-term investment decisions in under-electrified sectors such as heating and industrial processes.

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And compared to earlier years, consumers have a choice of a more comprehensive selection of electric vehicles and a virtuous cyclist taking hold. As the market grows, more firms enter, they compete, they offer consumers diversity and innovation. In this case, prices come down and range, probably the most critical buying factor for an EV increases. Much of this has been helped by the consistent decline in battery pack prices. Cheaper alternatives like sodium ion batteries will contribute further to downward price pressure. Now, technology transitions typically follow an S curve. And since the 20th century, many of these transitions have taken 8 to 14, maybe 15 years. This was true for the replacement of horses by cars or of sanger gene sequencing by next generation sequencing for feature phones to smartphones. And all of this happened even quicker as electric vehicles replaced internal combustion engine vehicles in markets such as Norway, with so much more consumer choice in EVs and the positive feedback loops accelerating and concomitantly owning a gas car and maintaining it becomes less attractive. It wouldn't be unreasonable to see transitions taking less than a decade from the point at which roughly 5% of all new cars sold are electric. The impact of stable and declining electricity prices divorced from fossil fuel commodity volatility will be profound. It'll allow for longer term investment decisions in under electrified sectors such as heating and industrial processes.

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