Balancing Economic Story with Machine Learning

The speaker reflects on the balance between relying on a strong economic story supported by data and incorporating machine learning into decision-making. Initially skeptical of machine learning and emphasizing the importance of data-driven economic storytelling, the speaker acknowledges that being overly cynical can hinder progress. They highlight the need for a combination of a compelling narrative supported by robust data and the cautious use of machine learning to guard against overfitting. The speaker credits their head of machine learning for guiding the technical aspects and shares insights from a paper titled 'The Virtue of Complexity', emphasizing the importance of maintaining a nuanced approach to incorporating machine learning in decision-making processes.