The Planning Fallacy: Unrealistic Optimism in Decision Making

Are fantasies helpful or harmful? How is daydreaming like a drug? And what did Angela fantasize about during ninth-grade English class?

• SOURCES:
  • Patrick Bet-David, YouTuber and founding C.E.O. of PHP Agency Inc.
  • Barbara Corcoran, "Shark" and executive producer on ABC’s Shark Tank and founder of The Corcoran Group.
  • Peter Gollwitzer, professor of psychology at New York University.
  • Danny Kahneman, professor emeritus of psychology at Princeton University.
  • Robert Nozick, philosopher.
  • Gabriele Oettingen, professor of psychology at New York University.
  • Kim Scott, co-founder of Radical Candor and prominent C.E.O. coach in Silicon Valley.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Dreamscrolling," by Empower (The Currency, 2024).
  • "Most Americans Can’t Afford a $1,000 Emergency: Survey," by Travis Schlepp (The Hill, 2024).
  • "Positive Fantasies and Negative Emotions in Soccer Fans," by A. Timur Sevincer, Greta Wagner, and Gabriele Oettingen (Cognition and Emotion, 2019).
  • Radical Candor: Be a Kick-Ass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity, by Kim Scott (2017).
  • "Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression," by Gabriele Oettingen, Doris Mayer, and Sam Portnow (Psychological Science, 2016).
  • "Positive Fantasies About Idealized Futures Sap Energy," by Heather Barry Kappes and Gabriele Oettingen (Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2011).
  • "Self-Regulation of Goal Setting: Turning Free Fantasies About the Future Into Binding Goals," by Gabriele Oettingen, Hyeon-ju Pak, and Karoline Schnetter (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2001).
  • "Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures," by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (DARPA Technical Report, 1977).
  • Anarchy, State, and Utopia, by Robert Nozick (1974).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Can You Really 'Manifest' Success Through Positive Visualization?" by No Stupid Questions (2024).

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