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GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic

Top Traders Unplugged

NOTE

Importance of Elections and Market Performance

Elections serve as a significant macro black hole impacting market dynamics. The Federal Reserve aims to mitigate left tail risks before elections, potentially influencing market outcomes. Historical data reveals that during periods of populism, election years have demonstrated double-digit positive market returns, contrasting with lower average returns during other periods. This underscores the critical impact of populism on fiscal spending and market performance, especially evident in the 1968-1982 era. The analysis highlights the necessity of considering election years within the context of populist governance for accurate market predictions.

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