Avoid Reflexive Contrarianism

• Don't simply bet against the majority view, as trends can persist.
• Instead, analyze the current market equilibrium and supporting data points.
• Look for evidence of a potential narrative shift, such as policy changes or economic data trends.
• Assess if new information supports the trend or pushes against it.
• Be aware of positioning and unwinds' impact.
• Look for asymmetry: small fundamental changes can cause large rallies if many investors are short.