Avoid Reflexive Contrarianism

Don't simply bet against the majority view, as trends can persist.
Instead, analyze the current market equilibrium and supporting data points.
Look for evidence of a potential narrative shift, such as policy changes or economic data trends.
Assess if new information supports the trend or pushes against it.
Be aware of positioning and unwinds' impact.
Look for asymmetry: small fundamental changes can cause large rallies if many investors are short.

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