The World Unpacked

Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the Eastern European nation of Moldova has been one of the countries most vulnerable to the war spilling over its borders. With the threat of Russia looming, the European Political Community, or EPC, will be holding its summit in that country this week, hoping to demonstrate its solidarity with the threatened nation, which includes the breakaway region of Transdniestria. Philip Remler, a former US diplomat who served with the State Department and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) who is now a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, joins Stewart to unpack the situation in Moldova and its relationship to the war in Ukraine.Philip Remler. (2022, August 2). "Transdniestria, Moldova, and Russia's War in Ukraine." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Philip Remler. (2021, May 17). "Inventing Crisis in Moldova: All Geopolitics Is Local." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

On May 14th, Türkiye will have its presidential and parliamentary elections. It will be a pivotal moment in Turkish politics with implications for the world concerning NATO, the war in Ukraine, Syrian refugees, and more. The highly contested race between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will be one to watch. Could this be the end of Erdoğan's two-decade rule?Alper Coşkun, a senior fellow with Carnegie’s Europe Program who was a career diplomat in the Turkish foreign service, joins Stewart to discuss what factors will shape the election and what to expect from either leader. Alper Coşkun. (2023, February 15). "Türkiye’s Earthquakes Revealed the Paralysis of Its State." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Alper Coşkun. (2023, February 1). "Sweden’s NATO Problem Is Also Turkey’s NATO Problem." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Alper Coşkun. (2022, December 19). "Turkey’s New Disinformation Law Affects More Than Meets the Eye." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen. (2022, November 14). "Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest assessment report. The news is not good, which makes it somber reading on this year’s Earth Day. Scientists warn that critical components of the Earth system may be approaching tipping points, and that crossing these thresholds could generate sudden and irreversible changes that themselves increase warming. Given this trajectory, what else might we do? Some scientists and policymakers are contemplating an unconventional approach to limit warming, called solar climate intervention. Kelly Wanser, the executive director of SilverLining, joins the show to unpack the idea of solar climate intervention and the research efforts happening both in the United States and internationally.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history since returning to power after winning last year’s election. Following an attempt by Netanyahu to weaken the Supreme Court, outraged Israeli citizens began protesting out of concern for the country’s democratic future. So, where does Israel go from here? Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program and host of Carnegie Connects, returns to the show to unpack the ongoing Israeli political turmoil. A veteran State Department negotiator and analyst, Aaron also examines with Stewart the broader implications for democracy in Israel.Aaron David Miller. (2023, March 30). "Israel Is Somewhere It’s Never Been Before." Foreign Policy.Aaron David Miller. (2023, March 26). "Why Biden Won't Lash Out Against Netanyahu - for Now." Haaretz.Aaron David Miller. (2023, February 23). "Netanyahu Faces His Own ‘Israeli Spring.'" Foreign Policy. 

While TikTok might be one of the world’s most popular social media apps, it has raised national security concerns among U.S. lawmakers and the Biden administration. With the app now facing a nationwide ban, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will testify before Congress amid heightened U.S.-China tech tensions. Could this be the end of TikTok?Returning to the show is Jon Bateman, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Technology and International Affairs Program and author of U.S.-China Technological “Decoupling”: A Strategy and Policy Framework. He joins Stewart to unpack the drama over the possibility of a nationwide TikTok ban and how it fits into the broader picture of U.S.-China strategic competition. 

In Nigeria’s pivotal election, the so-called godfather of Lagos and Nigeria’s kingmaker, Bola Tinubu, snatched victory. This comes amid calls of election fraud from the opposition parties and their two candidates, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. Tinubu nonetheless faces compounding crises amid persistent security threats in Nigeria and a flailing economy dependent on oil revenues. Yet Nigeria also holds great potential as Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy with a young population looking for a reason to remain in Nigeria if the conditions improve.Ruth Maclean, the West Africa bureau chief from the New York Times, joins Stewart to unpack Nigeria’s consequential election and where the Giant of Africa goes from here. The two discuss the immediate crises Tinubu must confront early on in his presidency, how to solve Nigeria’s endemic brain drain, and the reverberating effects the new president will have in West Africa.

Days before Russia illegally and brutally invaded Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a “no limits” partnership, demonstrating their deepening relations. It has been a year since Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 and the relationship between China and Russia seems as strong as ever. While Xi has proposed a peace plan and wishes to remain neutral in the war, China has still yet to condemn Russia for the invasion. Meanwhile, Western officials are looking at the visit from Beijing’s most senior foreign policy official, Wang Yi, to Moscow this week as an indication of China’s continued support of Russia.  Alexander Gabuev, one of the world’s foremost analysts of the Sino-Russian relationship, joins Stewart on the show to unpack how that relationship has changed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago and the vision Xi and Putin share for a new world order. As the incoming director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Alexander also discusses the future of Russia as a nation as well as how the war might end.  Alexander Gabuev. (2022, August 9). "China's New Vassal." Foreign Affairs. 

On January 1, 2023, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in for the third time as Brazil’s president with the challenge of leading a deeply divided country. Just a week later, on January 8, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court, and the presidential palace. But Brazil is far from being the only country experiencing threats to its democracy, as other countries across Latin America are currently dealing with turmoil.Joining Stewart this week is Matias Spektor, a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and a professor at the School of International Relations at FGV in Sao Paul, to unpack what to expect from Lula’s meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House this week. Matias will also discuss Lula’s global and regional aspirations for Brazil and the political trends facing Latin America. Gailherme Fasolin and Matias Spektor. (2022, November 7). "What Lula's Return Means for the Amazon." Foreign Affairs. 

The tanks are heading to Ukraine! After facing pressure from European and international allies, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced this week that Germany will supply Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. Following this, President Joe Biden announced the United States will send M1 Abrams tanks to the frontlines as well. The new supplies of tanks will aid Ukraine against Russia as the war nears the one-year mark.As the war in Ukraine continues, the EU is having to confront its own defense and security architecture with Germany playing a central role. Sophia Besch, a fellow in Carnegie’s Europe Program, joins Stewart to talk about Germany’s decision to supply tanks to Ukraine and what lies ahead for European defense. Sophia Besch. (2023, January 18). “To Really Modernize Its Armed Forces, Germany Needs a Long-Term Increase of the Regular Defense Budget.” 49security.Sophia Besch. (2022, December 21). “EU Defense and the War In Ukraine.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sophia Besch and Liana Fix. (2022 November 21). “Don’t Let Zeitenwende Get Derailed.” War on the Rocks.

Halfway through his term in office, President Biden has achieved significant accomplishments in 2022. The administration marshaled support around Ukraine to hold off the Russian invasion. It also passed major legislation to boost semiconductor production to compete with China, while also making great strides to be a leader in the fight against climate change.At the same time, the Biden administration still has major hurdles in the new year: a long war in Ukraine, little progress on negotiations with Iran, and the U.S. House of Representatives with the Republican Party at the helm.In the first episode of 2023, Nahal Toosi, Politico’s senior foreign affairs correspondent, talks to Stewart about Biden’s successes and challenges in the last year and what’s on the horizon for U.S. foreign policy in the new year. Nahal also hands Biden his foreign policy report card for the last year.We’re excited to announce that The World Unpacked will resume its regular schedule with new episodes every other week. Happy New Year!Reading from episode:Nahal Toosi. (2022, October 23). “‘Frustrated and powerless’: In fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America’s biggest weakness." Politico.