The World Unpacked

The oil industry has long been an attractive target for corruption and corrupt actors. State owned oil companies have frequently been accused of being a conduit for syphoning off public funds into private bank accounts, despite repeated civil society efforts to fight these networks of corruption in countries like Brazil and Nigeria. Guest host Deborah Gordon is joined by Carnegie Senior Fellow Sarah Chayes, dean of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism and author Steve Coll, and Nigerian anticorruption activist Olarenwaju Suraju to discuss how corruption can become an inextricable part of an economy and how civil society and the U.S. government can work to prevent it. Steve Coll is dean of the Columbia University School of Journalism and a staff writer at the New Yorker. He is the author of a bestselling profile of ExxonMobil called Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power. Olarenwaju Suraju is a Nigerian anticorruption and environmental activist, chair of that country’s Civil Society Network Against Corruption, and of the Human and Environmental Development Agenda. Sarah Chayes is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Program, and co-author of “The Oil Curse: A Remedial Role for the Oil Industry.” - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/712

Lot of cross-trends are buffeting the global scene at the moment: populism, nationalism, anti-globalization. Many of these come together in the form of Trump. But beneath these issues are other longer term shifts: in technology, demographics, and economy inequality. Moisés Naím, distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, is the chief international columnist for El País and La Repubblica and the author of the bestselling “The End of Power”. He spoke to Tom Carver about these global challenges and why Trump ultimately makes him feel optimistic about America. Moisés Naím is the chief international columnist for El País and La Repubblica, Spain’s and Italy’s largest dailies, and a contributing editor to the Atlantic. Naím’s public service includes his tenure as Venezuela’s minister of trade and industry in the early 1990s, director of Venezuela’s Central Bank, and executive director of the World Bank. (more about Naim - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/21)

With other headlines coming out of the Middle East in recent years, the Palestinian issue has been pushed to the background. Repeated efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have faltered, and conditions in the Palestinian Territories have continued to deteriorate, with chronic shortages of food and water and a staggeringly high 60 percent unemployment rate among youth in the Gaza Strip. Amidst all of this, the Palestinian people seem to be losing faith in their leaders' ability to deliver. Carnegie scholars Perry Cammack and Nathan Brown recently conducted a survey of 58 Palestinian leaders, and found dwindling support for their own institutions. Tom is joined by Carnegie scholars Perry Cammack and Nathan Brown to discuss the findings in their report, Revitalizing Palestinian Nationalism: Options Versus Realities, with Husam Zomlot, the chief representative of the Palestinian General Delegation to the United States. Perry Cammack is a fellow in Carnegie's Middle East Program, where he focuses on long-term regional trends and their implications for American foreign policy. Prior to joining Carnegie in August 2015, Cammack worked on issues related to the Middle East as part of the policy planning staff of Secretary of State John Kerry from 2013 to 2015 and as a senior professional staff member for then senator Kerry on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. (More about Cammack - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1080) Nathan J. Brown is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and is a distinguished scholar and author of six well-received books on Arab politics. He serves on the Middle East and North Africa advisory committee for Human Rights Watch and the board of trustees at the American University in Cairo. (More about Brown - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/238) Husam S. Zomlot is the chief representative of the Palestinian General Delegation to the United States and an adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Last year, hackers used malware to steal $101 million remotely from a Bangladesh bank from thousands of miles away. Cyberattacks can be as debilitating and dangerous as conventional warfare — particularly in the financial sector, where a single attack could cripple or disrupt global financial systems. This kind of cyber-attack is emerging as a new frontier of potential conflict between nations. Yet there are no norms or policies governing the prevention of cyber financial attacks. So how can countries work together to prevent attacks on financial markets and institutions from rogue nations, and even non-state actors? Tom Carver discussed the threat with Michael Chertoff, former U.S. Secretary of homeland security, and Tim Maurer, co-director of Carnegie’s Cyber Policy Initiative. Michael Chertoff is the co-founder and executive chairman of the Chertoff Group. He served as Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security from 2005 to 2009. (More on Chertoff - https://www.chertoffgroup.com/about-us/our-team/205-michael-chertoff) Tim Maurer is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and co-directs its Cyber Policy Initiative. He is currently writing a book on cybersecurity and proxy actors. (More on Maurer - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1086)

Heads of state from the G20 countries assemble this weekend for their international summit, and all eyes are on U.S. President Trump. So far his track record overseas has been one of sparring and tension, following the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the ill-humored G7 and NATO meetings earlier this year. However, on his first stop of this trip in Poland he gave a more supportive speech and endorsed the idea of NATO’s article five. So where does all this leave the United States in terms of global leadership? Tom is joined by Carnegie Senior Fellow Jake Sullivan, former adviser to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, to discuss the G20 summit and the future of U.S. leadership. Jake Sullivan served in the Obama administration as national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden and director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State, as well as deputy chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Sullivan is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Geoeconomics and Strategy Program and a Martin R. Flug Visiting lecturer in law at Yale Law School.​ (More on Sullivan -http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1335)

Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the transition to a low-carbon economy is speeding along. For example, twice as many Americans are employed by the solar industry as in the coal industry, and that trend seems to be accelerating. In fact, some have argued that the Trump administration’s withdrawal from Paris may accelerate the adoption of a green economy, given the number of states, cities, companies, and organizations pushing for Paris-friendly policies as a result. Carnegie Fellow David Livingston joins Tom, along with Lisa Hagerman and Jigar Shah, to discuss the transition to a low-carbon economy. David Livingston served as the inaugural Robert S. Strauss fellow for geoeconomics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative, where he concluded as acting Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Congressional Affairs. He is an associate fellow in Carnegie’s Energy and Climate Program, where his research focuses on geoeconomics, markets, and risk. (More on Livingston - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/553) Lisa Hagerman is the director of programs at DBL Partners. (More on Hagerman - http://www.dblpartners.vc/people/lisa-hagerman/) Jigar Shah is the co-founder of Generate Capital. (More on Shah - https://generatecapital.com/)

The West has long been a font of stability, prosperity, and security. Yet when faced with global instability and economic uncertainty, it is tempting for states to react by closing borders, hoarding wealth, and solidifying power. In a compelling new book, The Fate of the West: The Battle to Save the World’s Most Successful Political Idea, former Economist editor Bill Emmott argues for a return to the core values of openness and equality of opportunity that are increasingly eroded in today’s global political climate. Emmott joins Ashley J. Tellis, the Tata Chair in Strategic Affairs at Carnegie, and Tom Carver to discuss the challenges facing Western states and potential strategies for the revitalization of liberal democracy. Ashley Tellis served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the U.S. National Security Council staff as special assistant to President George W. Bush and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (RAND, 2001) and co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000). Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs.​ (More on Tellis - carnegieendowment.org/experts/198) Bill Emmott is an independent writer, lecturer, and consultant on international affairs, and former editor-in-chief of the Economist. He is also chairman of The Wake Up Foundation. (More on Emmott - billemmott.com)

Where is Turkey heading? Last month president Erdogan narrowly won a referendum to give his presidency sweeping new powers. What does this portend for Turkey's relationship with the region and the rest of the world? And how far is he planning to go to entrench the pier of the AKP in his pursuit of Islamic nationalism at home? Tom Carver discussed Turkey's trajectory with Carnegie Europe's Sinan Ülgen and the director of Carnegie’s Europe Program, Erik Brattberg. Sinan Ülgen is the author of Governing Cyberspace: A Road Map for Transatlantic Leadership (Carnegie Europe, 2016), Handbook of EU Negotiations (Bilgi University Press, 2005), and The European Transformation of Modern Turkey with Kemal Derviş (Centre for European Policy Studies, 2004). He has served in the Turkish Foreign Service in several capacities: in Ankara on the United Nations desk; in Brussels at the Turkish Permanent Delegation to the European Union; and at the Turkish embassy in Tripoli. (More on Ülgen - http://carnegieeurope.eu/experts/?fa=547) Erik Brattberg is director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He joined Carnegie from the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University, where he was the director for special projects and a senior fellow. (More on Brattberg - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1342)

Millions of people in the developing world encounter corruption every day, in the form of bribes they have to pay to go about their daily lives. But there’s an insidious form of corruption that permeates entire structures, including governments, which is often hidden in apparently legitimate activity. Carnegie Senior Fellow Sarah Chayes has been researching this form of corruption for the better part of a decade. She argues that in corrupt countries, kleptocratic networks involve not only government officials, but private industries and established criminal networks. In her recent report, When Corruption is the Operating System: The Case of Honduras, Sarah examines how the kleptocratic system functions in a case study on that country. Sarah joins Tom and Zephyr Teachout, author of Corruption in America: From Benjamin Franklin’s Snuff Box to Citizens United, and a democratic candidate in the New York gubernatorial race, for a discussion on corruption and power. Sarah Chayes is internationally recognized for her innovative thinking on corruption and its implications. Her work explores how severe corruption can help prompt such crises as terrorism, revolutions and their violent aftermaths, and environmental degradation. (More on Chayes - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/712) Zephyr Teachout is an associate professor of law at Fordham University. (More on Teachout -https://www.fordham.edu/info/23186/zephyr_teachout)

As the recent horrific bombings show, there are no easy solutions in Afghanistan. The conflict is the United States’ longest-running war, and despite the billions of dollars that have been spent in foreign support since 9/11, the Taliban continues to pose a major security threat. The White House is in the midst of a review of its Afghanistan policy and will decide later this year whether to increase the number of US troops in the country. Carnegie expert Ashley Tellis has analyzed the issue for many years, and discusses the choices facing the White House with Tom Carver. Ashley Tellis served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the U.S. National Security Council staff as special assistant to President George W. Bush and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (RAND, 2001) and co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000). Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs.​ (More on Tellis - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/198)