Hidden Forces

Nic Carter is a partner at Castle Island Ventures, a Cambridge MA-based venture fund focused on seed stage investments in public blockchain startups. He’s also the cofounder and chairman of Coin Metrics, a blockchain analytics company and he is a regular columnist at CoinDesk where he writes thoughtfully about the political economy and issues concerning bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Nic been on the show before; he was our guest on episode 97. He’s thoughtful; he’s interesting to talk to, and this conversation turned out to be so enjoyable that we’ve decided to make it available to everyone. If you like what you hear, please take a moment to share your thoughts and feelings about the podcast on twitter or as a review on Apple Podcasts. If you are interested in supporting the show and gaining access to our premium RSS feed, as well as to transcripts, notes, & rundowns from every episode you can do this directly through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our RSS feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas releases the overtime segment to Episode 123 with Grant Williams and Ben Hunt. The three discuss the power of authenticity and narrative in an era of fake news and “ponzi people,” what it’s like to build a content business, what they’ve learned doing it, and what drives them to keep going. You can support Demetri and the team at Hidden Forces by becoming a premium subscriber, which gives you access to transcripts, rundowns, and overtime segments, including this week’s special recording with Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. Your support is what makes this program possible. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 133 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, which runs the largest private Chinese data collection operation in the world, about the state of China’s economy in the wake of COVID-19. The two discuss the impact of the global shutdown on all the major sectors of China’s economy, as well as the implications for China’s already fragile banking system. During the overtime, Leland and Demetri consider a host of geopolitical consequences that could flow from the ongoing global disruptions. They also discuss the effects to Chinese real estate and how the CCP may try a catastrophic contraction. You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 132 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management and publisher of the market-moving ISM Manufacturing Index about the impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains. This is a deep-dive into how the  intricate world of just-in-time manufacturing, outsourcing, and globalization has been impacted by the world-wide disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus. In recent years, global supply chains have been in the process of a fundamental shift, in part to strengthen their immune systems to mitigate the risk of multiple threats — unprecedented trade turbulence, as well as economic uncertainty, geopolitical events and rising labor costs. COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) has provided a severe new test to these global supply chains. Since its genesis in the manufacturing hub of Wuhan, China, in December, the outbreak has resulted in more than one million documented cases and nearly sixty thousand deaths worldwide, quarantined workers, temporarily shuttered factories, canceled high-profile events, shaken markets and handcuffed supply management organizations at many companies. The gravity of the situation was exemplified in a survey by Institute for Supply Management, which found that nearly three-fourths (72%) of U.S. companies have experienced supply chain disruptions due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions, and 81% of organizations expect their procurement operations to be impacted by COVID-19. For some of those companies, the infection goes beyond the supply chain, as 16% of survey respondents report lowering annual revenue targets by an average of 5.6%. More than half (53%) of the 628 respondents in ISM’s recent survey said their companies are having trouble getting supply chain information from China. You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

In Episode 131 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hari Krishnan, a portfolio manager at Doherty Advisors responsible for the VXR (VIX replication strategy) and hedging solutions business. The two discuss Hari’s thesis around risk management, portfolio construction and positioning once a market downturn is already underway. Although the content discussed in this episode is considered “sophisticated,” we try and make it accessible to the average listener. Topics include the investor mindset, protecting against systemic risk, options pricing, the role of credit in the market cycle, endogenous vs. exogenous risk, agent-based modeling, exchange traded products, volatility, and trend following strategies.  The overtime includes more detailed examples of tactics and strategies that can be deployed in service of risk mitigation and profit making during the type of market-downturn that we are  now experiencing. You can access that overtime, along with the rundown and transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

In Episode 130 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Gillian Tett, chair of the editorial board and editor-at-large of the Financial Times about America’s new “wartime economy” and the unspoken consequences of the most radical financial and political crisis since World War II. Demetri starts the conversation by asking Gillian what it’s like to run the largest financial newspaper in the world during the greatest economic and political crisis in three generations. The two discuss the latest central bank policy actions, fiscal stimulus, and a series of other timely topics ranging from distressed corporates, emerging markets, dollar funding, and much, much more. If you want to read the transcript to today’s conversation or gain access to the rundown for this episode head over to the Hidden Forces Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. By becoming a monthly subscriber you are helping to make this podcast possible. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 129 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Josh Crumb, founder & CEO of Abaxx Technologies, which is launching a new commodity futures exchange in Singapore over the next year. Josh was formerly a macro economist and commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, where he was the head of metals strategy. He is also a co-founder of gold bullion dealer Goldmoney, and Jewelry company Mene.  In their conversation, Josh and Demetri discuss a curious case of backwardation on the COMEX, which is the futures and options market for trading metals in New York. The price of gold in near-dated futures expiring at the end of March spiked by almost 10% to $70 an ounce above the price of obtaining physical gold in London. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. Josh Crumb explains what really happened in the early hours of March 24, how disruptions to global supply chains caused by COVID-19 factor in, and why it matters to you. If you are interested in becoming a supporter of Hidden Forces, head over to our Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers, giving you access to the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this and all prior episodes. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 128 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with George Selgin, director of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute about the recently announced monetary and fiscal policy measures being undertaken to stem the economic fallout from COVID-19 and the government mandated shutdown of the American economy. This is a deep-dive into the specifics of the Federal Reserve and US government’s policies, including the mechanics of the monetary and fiscal stimulus. We are living in unprecedented times. The closest analogy to what we are experiencing is the mobilization undertaken to fight World War II with one crucial difference: this is a radical demobilization of the American economy. To fight the virus, Americans are being asked to stay in their homes and move about as little as possible. In order to survive a prolonged period of commercial inactivity governments have moved swiftly to pass monetary and fiscal stimulus measures that are themselves as unprecedented as the current lock-down of the global economy. How far will these measures go and what will Western countries like the United States look like on the other side of this crisis? Answering this question may prove more important than any other we have posed before on this program, and we try to answer it today. You can access the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. By becoming a monthly subscriber you are helping to make this podcast possible. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 127 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ben Hubbard, the Beirut bureau chief for The New York Times about Saudi Arabia and the rise to power of Mohammed bin Salman. Topics include the ongoing oil price war, tensions with Iran, the war in Yemen, and the geopolitics of the Middle East. The two also discuss the impact of coronavirus for the region’s politics and security. According to Ben Hubbard, when King Salman of Saudi Arabia ascended to the throne in January 2015 and began bestowing enormous powers on his 29-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, it sent minds reeling. Given Saudi Arabia’s importance as the wealthiest country in the Middle East and a key partner of the West, foreign officials, journalists, experts, and spies had long scrutinized the Saudi royal family to anticipate who might come to power in the future—and MBS, as he was known, had remained far off the radar. Who, they wondered, was this inexperienced young prince who swiftly asserted his control over the kingdom’s oil, military, finances, and domestic and foreign policy? And could he be trusted?  Ben closely tracks MBS’s trajectory to shed light on the man and the critical country he controls. He explores Saudi Arabia’s closed and opaque society and tracks Mohammad bin Salman from his earliest days in power. With vows to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil, loosen its strict Islamic social codes, and champion the fight against extremism, the young prince won admirers on Wall Street and in Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood with his grand visions for a new Saudi Arabia and a reordered Middle East. In 2017, Saudi Arabia made global headlines by announcing that it would lift its long-time ban on women driving and hosting a lavish “Davos in the Desert” conference, where MBS wowed international financiers with plans for a new $500 billion city that he said would be powered by sustainable energy and staffed by robots—serving as “a roadmap for the future of civilization.”  However, Hubbard’s reporting from a half-dozen countries and hundreds of interviews with a range of sources reveals that a harsher reality was building quietly behind the hype. To secure his path to the throne and quash opposition to his plans, the young prince empowered a covert team to silence critics at home and abroad while deploying new technologies to consolidate his authoritarian rule. He soon made headlines again, for forcing the resignation of the prime minister of Lebanon; locking hundreds of princes, businessmen, and government officials in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton on allegations of corruption; for the hacking by Saudi operatives of cell phones of Saudi dissidents, journalists (including a suspected attempt on Hubbard himself), and others who supported views critical of the Saudi regime; and most infamously for his links to the operatives who killed Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.  Their conversation explores these palace intrigues, as Ben and Demetri consider how this bold (and perhaps dangerous) new leader is changing the face of the Bedowin kingdom, both for the better and for the worse. If you are interested in becoming a supporter of Hidden Forces, head over to our Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers, giving you access to the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this and all prior episodes. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In this Special Episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Yaneer Bar-Yam, President of the New England Complex Systems Institute. Professor Bar-Yam studies the unified properties of complex systems as a systematic strategy for answering basic questions about the world. His research is focused both on formalizing complex systems concepts and relating them to everyday problems. In particular, he studies the relationship between observations at different scales, formal properties of descriptions of systems, the relationship of structure and function, the representation of information as a physical quantity, and quantitative properties of the complexity of real systems. Applications have been to physical, biological, and social systems. He has applied this background to COVID-19 by not only studying the virus, but by actually launching endCoronavirus.org, a website built and maintained by NESCI whose “goal is to minimize the impact of COVID-19 by providing useful data and guidelines for action.” Yaneer and his colleagues have put out more alarming numbers than those often cited by public officials in recent weeks and months. According to Yaneer’s research team, which has co-faculty, students and affiliates from MIT, Harvard, Brandeis and other universities, “COVID-19 is a rapidly transmitting disease that evolves in 20% of cases to require extended hospitalizations and roughly 2-4% of cases result in death, with risks increasing rapidly for those over 50 years old. It can transmit even with mild symptoms (coughing, sneezing, or elevated temperature) and perhaps before symptoms appear.” He believes that reducing the likelihood of transmission requires everyone to reduce their likelihood of contact not only so they aren’t infected but also so that they don’t transmit the disease to others. If everyone got tested for COVID-19, according to Yaneer, we could temporarily separate the infected from the uninfected, and this would help reduce the spread of the virus and allow for societies to function normally. If you are interested in becoming a supporter of Hidden Forces, head over to our Patreon Page and subscribe to one of our three content tiers. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod