Hidden Forces

In Episode 121, of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Yaffa, a Moscow correspondent for The New Yorker about what life is like in Putin’s Russia. Yaffa's latest book on the subject is a fascinating inquiry into the Soviet and post-Soviet personality type that sustains the state’s power and Vladimir Putin’s place atop it.  Joshua Yaffa’s new book is titled, “Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin’s Russia.” It’s a book about life in modern Russia that pulls both from the country’s history, as well as from a large body of sociological research into the Soviet and post-Soviet personality type whose “habits, inclinations, and internal moral calculations,” according to Joshua “elevated Vladimir Putin to his current position and which now perform the small, daily work that, in aggregate, keeps him there.” This conversation is one of the more nuanced you are bound to hear on the subject of Russia, Putin, and Russian propaganda in American media. Yaffa speaks critically, but honestly, about a country that features prominently in American politics today. Demetri also shares insights from his own experience working at the Russian state media outlet RT (Russia Today).  For Patreon subscribers, this week’s rundown covers not only the subject of Demetri’s conversation with Joshua, but much of Yaffa’s book  as well. You can access that rundown, the overtime segment, as well as a transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page.  All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 120 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Lind, a highly accomplished intellectual, writer, and academic about his latest book “The New Class War.” According to Michael Lind, the animating force behind the new class war is not income or wealth inequality but power. The old spectrum of left and right has given way to a new dichotomy in politics among insiders and outsiders, the former of which wield social power in three realms—government, economy, and culture. Each of these realms is the site of the new class war punctuated by periods of intense conflict and contained by periods of interclass compromise. Michael Lind’s overall argument is that “only power can check power.” Absent a compromise between the classes there are only two possible outcomes: 1) The domination of the working class by a neoliberal, technocratic elite or 2) the triumph of the working class over the elite by way of reliance on populist demagoguery (e.g. William Jennings Bryan, Donald Trump, etc.). According to Lind, the technocratic neoliberal revolution from above, carried out in one Western nation after another by members of the ever more aggressive and powerful managerial elite, has provoked a populist backlash from below by the defensive and disempowered native working class, many of whom are nonwhite. Large numbers of alienated working-class voters, realizing that the political systems of their nations are rigged and that mainstream parties will continue to ignore their interests and values, have found sometimes unlikely champions in demagogic populists like Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Marine Le Pen, and Matteo Salvini. Michael Lind’s stated purpose in “The New Class War” is not to defend populist demagoguery, but rather to diagnose it and provide his readers with a cure: democratic pluralism: “Contemporary populism is a kind of convulsive autoimmune response by the body politic to the chronic degenerative disease of oligarchy. Demagogic populism is a symptom. Technocratic neoliberalism is the disease. Democratic pluralism is the cure.” For those of you interested in listening to this week’s overtime segment or for anyone who would like a copy of the transcript and rundown to Demetri’s conversation with Michael Lind, you can gain access to that content through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 119 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Sean Carroll, a best-selling author and research professor of theoretical physics at the California Institute of Technology. His research has focused on fundamental physics and cosmology, especially issues of dark matter, dark energy, spacetime symmetries, and the origin of the universe. Recently, Dr. Carroll has worked on the foundations of quantum mechanics, the emergence of spacetime, and the evolution of entropy and complexity.   Our focus today is on the subject of Sean Carroll’s latest book “Something Deeply Hidden: Quantum Worlds and the Emergence of Space-time.” The conversation jumps around quite a bit, and much of the discussion bends towards the philosophical. Demetri and Dr. Carroll discuss ontological questions dealing with the nature of reality and the possible limitations of science as an epistemological tool for making definitive statements about our own conscious experience. They also delve into some of the core theoretical aspects of quantum mechanics like the measurement problem, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, entanglement, and nonlocality. Sean Carroll also explains some of the various interpretations of quantum theory such as the Copenhagen interpretation, Many Worlds, Be Broglie–Bohm, Spontaneous Collapse, and QBism.  For subscribers to our Hidden Forces Overtime feed, Demetri and Sean spend the balance of their time discussing more off-the-wall subjects such as the impact of quantum mechanics in culture, the fascination with time travel, challenges for artificial general intelligence, the prospect of aliens, and the implications of flat earth theory. You can access the show overtime, along with the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also get their own exclusive Overtime RSS feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 118 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets.  Born in New York City and raised on Long Island, Jim had thoughts, first, of a career in music, not interest rates—french horn was his love. But he threw it over to enter the Navy. Following his stint in the Navy, Jim enrolled Indiana University where he studied economics under Scott Gordon and Elmus Wicker and diplomatic history under Robert H. Ferrell, and later, obtained a master’s degree in international affairs under the guiding tutelage of cultural historian, critic and public intellectual Jacques Barzun.  In 1972, at the age of 26, Grant began working as a cub reporter at the Baltimore Sun, moving to Barron’s in 1975. The late 1970s were years of inflation, monetary disorder and upheaval in the interest-rate markets—as Jim Grant says, “of journalistic opportunity.” Barron's editor Robert M. Bleiberg, tapped Grant to originate a column devoted to interest rates. This weekly department, called “Current Yield,” he wrote until the time he left to found the eponymous “Interest Rate Observer” in the summer of 1983.   During his long career, Jim Grant has written a series of books including three financial histories, a pair of collections of Grant’s articles and four biographies, the most recent of which is about the life and times of Walter Bagehot, whose ideas about central banking informed the U.S. Federal Reserve's response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. This conversation is unusually convivial, even by the normal standards. Demetri and Jim discuss actions by the Federal Reserve in the repo market (including official and unofficial explanations for the turmoil seen in mid-September 2019), the recent WeWork and SoftBank debacle, a possible bubble in the leveraged loan market, and much more.  During the overtime to this week’s episode, Jim shares information about how he invests his own money (and who he invests it with), delves into some of Grant’s value analysis research and provides insights into his own work process as an editor and interviewer. If you want access to the overtime or to the transcript and rundown for this conversation, you can do so through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. Subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 117 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author David Epstein about what the world’s most successful people have in common. He discovers that in most fields—especially those that are complex and unpredictable—generalists, not specialists, are the ones primed for success. “As computers master more of the skills once reserved for highly focused humans,” says David, “people who think broadly and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives will increasingly thrive.” David’s conclusions run counter to the prevailing view among “experts” who argue that anyone who wants to develop a skill, play an instrument, or lead their field should start early, focus intensely, and rack up as many hours of deliberate practice as possible. “If you dabble or delay,” they say “you’ll never catch up to the people who got a head start.” But a closer look at research on the world’s top performers, from professional athletes to Nobel laureates, paints a very different picture. In fact, it shows that early specialization is actually the exception, not the rule. In his research, David Epstein discovers that while generalists often do find their path late—juggling many interests rather than focusing on one—they arrive at their destination with a higher degree of “fit” after undergoing a prolonged sampling period. They’re also more creative, more agile, and able to make connections their more specialized peers can’t see.  In their conversation, David Epstein makes a compelling case for actively cultivating inefficiency. He explains why failing a test is the best way to learn and that frequent quitters end up with the most fulfilling careers. He gives example after example of how some of the most impactful inventors cross domains rather than deepening their knowledge in a single area. In a 21st century increasingly dominated by automation and the specter of artificial intelligence, David believes that people who think broadly and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives will increasingly thrive. You can access the rundown to this week’s episode, along with a transcript to Demetri’s conversation with David through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application, allowing you to listen in on the rest of Demetri and David’s conversation. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 116 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eugenia Zukerman, an internationally renowned flutist, writer, and former television correspondent. Eugenia was the artistic director of the Bravo! Vail Valley Music Festival in Colorado for thirteen years and the arts correspondent on CBS Sunday Morning for more than twenty-five years. She is the author of two novels, two works of nonfiction, and numerous screenplays, articles, and book reviews.    Three years ago, Eugenia’s family began to notice changes in her cognition. She was unusually forgetful and at times confused in ways that seemed unusual. Pushed by her family to undergo testing, it was determined that she was suffering symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s. It was around this time that Eugenia took pen to paper, and began writing what turned into a lyrical memoir (“Like Falling Through a Cloud,”) of her experience coping with the type of forgetfulness and confusion that comes with such a difficult diagnosis. What Eugenia Zuckerman is going through is a variation of what we will all face at some point in our lives, and it’s something that is particularly hard to accept for those of us who have been blessed with bountiful lives and the capacities to shape them. We’re used to getting our way, but when it comes to our mortality, we’re all in the same boat. We all have a common fate to share, and in some odd way, this can be a source of comfort.  As we move into a new decade full of life, love, relationships, and opportunities, it would behoove us to focus a little bit more on the things that bring us together and less on the things that set us apart. In this sense, Eugenia’s story serves as an inspiration. You can access this week’s transcript through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 115 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Brian Koffman, a doctor turned CLL patient, whose patient education and advocacy efforts have given hope and encouragement to CLL cancer patients everywhere. Brian Koffman is extraordinary, in many ways. He’s extraordinary in the medical sense because, after twelve years of battling blood cancer, doctors can no longer find a single trace of malignancy in his entire body. He is 100% cancer-free going on almost two years, thanks to an experimental therapy that wiped out his CLL cancer in less than a month. But there’s another way in which Dr. Koffman is extraordinary, and this has to do with how he has handled his diagnosis. Brian Koffman's willingness to share his experience undergoing cutting edge treatments, as well as his decision to leave his medical practice behind and dedicate his life entirely to being a CLL advocate have both had an enormously positive impact on the lives of CLL patients and their families. Many listeners will already know Demetri’s story and that he is a survivor of a brain tumor that caused him debilitating psychological and physical distress, but which also empowered him to change his life. It took such an experience for Demetri to truly understand that his time in this world is limited. This is not just true of him; it is true of you, too. It’s true of all of us. We’re all mortal, and how we choose to spend our precious time in the face of this reality is what gives our lives their meaning. It is what distinguishes Dr. Koffman’s life from yours, and yours from someone else’s.  Dr. Koffman has made his choices, and hopefully, he will have many, many more to make. His story is one of perseverance, leadership, generosity, and service to a cause greater than himself. But besides serving as an important source of information and optimism about a very serious illness, we hope that his story and this conversation provide you with cause to reflect on your own life and on the things that matter most to you and how you want to spend your remaining time on this planet. For more information about Brian Koffmar or to learn more about his work in CLL patient education and advocacy, please visit https://cllsociety.org.  You can access the afterthoughts segment to this week’s rundown, the transcript of Demetri conversation with Dr. Koffman, as well as the episode rundown (show notes and educational materials about the substance of today’s conversation) through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In this week’s episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor Mike Green. Mike Green most recently served as the discretionary portfolio manager for Thiel Macro, LLC, an investment firm that manages the personal capital of Peter Thiel. He's been a student of markets, and market structure in particular, for nearly 30 years. His research into and analysis of the shift from actively managed portfolios and investment funds to systematic passive investment strategies has been presented to the Federal Reserve, the BIS, the IMF and numerous other industry groups and associations. His intention has been to alert regulators to the clear and present danger that he feels these strategies pose to the stability and viability of global capital markets. It is important to note that while the post-2008 period has seen a flourishing of more complex, behavioral approaches to economics that reject notions of equilibrium and mean-reversion, there has simultaneously been a doubling down among investors on passive strategies that see markets as stochastically predictable, efficient, and always mean-reverting. These approaches do not incorporate new information like price data or value metrics in their transaction functions. Most importantly, they do not incorporate the impact of their own buying or selling behavior. Indeed, according to Mike Green, “the incentive of these target funds, from a regulatory and lobbying standpoint, is to demonstrate that they don’t exist.”  The forces of automation driven by our diminishingly available brain space, along with the need for generating higher yield seem to have overwhelmed investors’ understandings about how the world actually works. This imperative to deliver yield above what the market can bear on a reasonably, risk-reward basis, combined with the cognitive overload that investors and clients are experiencing in their daily lives may be leading us down a path of self-destruction. This unease is captured in what Mike Green calls "the uncanny valley," a term most closely associated with the robotics design space. It is used to describe the aesthetic confusion one feels while encountering an android whose human resemblance is noticeably disturbing. Similarly, in markets today, many of us know that something is wrong but can't quite put our finger on what it is. Indeed, some of the best active managers in the business have given up trying to figure it out. The purpose of today’s episode is to help shed light on the source of this unease and to set the foundation for the second part of our conversation, which has been made available to Patreon Audiophile, Autodidact, and Super Nerd subscribers. In the overtime, Demetri drills into the specifics of Mike’s thesis regarding the implications of passive investment strategies that have ballooned in popularity over the last 25 years making up forty-seven and twenty-seven percent respectively of assets under management in equities and bond funds at the end of 2018 – up from less than five percent in 1995. Mike also shares information about how he and his partners are managing their clients’ portfolios in order to mitigate the risks posed by these structural changes, as well as how they’ve sought to monetize the opportunities that these same flows represent.   You can access the second part of today’s conversation, along with the transcript and rundown through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers are granted access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 113 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with John Mearsheimer, professor of political science and international relations at the University of Chicago. Dr. Mearsheimer’s intellectual contributions have had a profound influence on the thinking of an entire generation of students in international relations. He’s been a vocal critic of neoliberal hegemony, nation-building, as well as the so-called “forever wars” that America has been engaged in ever since the Bush administration’s invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. He is most closely associated with the realist school, which views the international system as fundamentally anarchic, where the most dominant concern among the great powers is defined by their desire and competition for security that sometimes leads to war.  This conversation focuses on two major themes of John Mearsheimer’s latest book “The Great Delusion,” in which he attempts to explain why American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War up until the present day has been such a colossal failure, and how much of this failure can be ascribed to a fundamental misunderstanding on the part of America’s foreign policy elite about the relationship between nationalism and liberalism. John Mearsheimer argues that nationalism is by far the more powerful of the two forces and that therefore, liberal hegemony was always destined to fail. Mearsheimer makes the argument for a more restrained, humble US foreign policy that acknowledges not only the limits of nation-building but also the realities of international conflict that the United States is at risk of instigating with countries like China and Russia with whom it is currently in a deep security competition. You can access the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

In Episode 112 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Steve Keen one of the few economists to correctly anticipate the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, as well as the subsequent deflationary forces that would frustrate and confound policymakers in the years afterward. The two discuss Keen’s latest work modeling the impact of climate on economic output, as well as debunking some of the most common misperceptions about money and credit held by Keynesian and Austrian theorists alike. Demetri and Steve have known each other going back almost ten years. Dr. Keen was a frequent guest on Demetri’s old television program Capital Account, where he would come on to share his views on markets and the economy. For years, Steve had been warning policymakers and the media about the dangers of a build-up in private sector debt through mortgage refinancing and consumer credit. In the years after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, Steve Keen was one of the prominent voices alongside folks like Richard Koo, Mark Zandi, and others, who were ringing the alarm bell, warning about the risk of a deflationary spiral. Many of the more prominent, Austrian-trained economists like Thomas Woods, Peter Schiff, and others, were pounding the table about the risk of hyperinflation. In retrospect, it was those economists warning about deflation like Steve Keen, who had it right. In today’s conversation, we explore the reasons why and examine if those conditions still hold to this present day. You can gain access to this week’s overtime segment, as well as to the transcript of Demetri’s conversation with Steve Keen through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod