Hidden Forces

In Episode 318 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political and financial historians Edward Chancellor, Russell Napier, and Helen Thompson. All three have appeared individually on the podcast before and joined Demetri ahead of his latest Genius community dinner in London to discuss the changing nature of the international economic and political order. Many of the material changes we are experiencing today are driven by the reversal of multi-decade trends in demographics, globalization, and low-cost, carbon-based energy sources. The ripple effects of these changes on inflation, risk rates, wealth & income distribution, national security, and the ruling legitimacy of national governments are already starting to materialize. Learning to navigate these changes is crucial if you want to remain ahead of the curve. Today’s conversation is meant to help you do just that. The episode’s second hour begins with a discussion about the energy transition and its geostrategic consequences for resource-rich countries like the US and Russia, for countries that are heavily dependent on energy imports like those in the European Union, and for China, which is investing enormous sums of money into renewables and other, non-carbon-based sources of energy. The panel also discusses the possibility of a rapprochement between the US, Europe, and Russia, avenues for peace between the US and China, and some of the industries and sectors that are positioned to benefit, as well as those that you will want to avoid in this new economic and political paradigm. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/29/2023

In Episode 317 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with General Mick Ryan. Mick Ryan is an author, strategist, and retired major general who has commanded at multiple levels in the Australian Army and served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and East Timor. After decades of brinkmanship and confrontation, the United States and China finally go to war when China invades the island of Taiwan. This is the premise that General Mick Ryan explores in his latest book “White Sun War: The Campaign for Tawain.” In an era when humans no longer just use machines but partner with them in all aspects of military operations, this fictional account views this future war through the eyes of the Americans, Chinese, and Taiwanese caught up in the maelstrom, revealing the heartbreak, courage, leadership, and despair of high-tech warfare played out on land, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace. Mick Ryan and Demetri discuss some of the various scenarios by which the PLA might begin such a campaign, the base estimates for casualties that could stem from such a conflict, the exploitability of our internal division, the unique importance of Japan, its navy, and its bases in any defense of the island, the capacity of the US industrial base to sustain such a conflict, and much more. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on  06/19/2023

In Episode 316 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan about this week’s FOMC meeting and what the Federal Reserve rate decision could signal about the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. Will it be heralded as the long anticipate Fed pivot or seen as yet another head fake on our way toward “higher for longer,” serving as a drag on equity valuations and a headwind to economic growth? Because Andy’s analysis is largely quantitative and flows based, he looks at not only what policymakers and investors are saying, but also what they’re doing, what they’re buying, and how they’re buying it. This holds important information for the direction of bond prices, equities (and other risk asset), inflation, and economic growth, all of which Constan and Kofinas discuss in the second part of their conversation. The two also run through different scenarios surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision, the significance of Janet Yellen’s decision to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) using largely T-Bill issuance as opposed to longer duration bonds, and why the long-anticipated recession has failed to materialize despite the most aggressive interest rate increases in 40 years. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 06/13/2023

In Episode 315 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas is joined by Nicholas Danforth and Amberin Zaman to discuss the significance of the recent elections in Turkey for Turkish politics, the country’s complex relationship with its neighbors and allies in Europe and the United States, and for the Turkish economy, which has been teetering on the edge of a balance of payments crisis with no easy solution in sight. While much ink has been spilled by Western press outlets covering the recent elections, many of the stories have lacked a larger context for why Turkey’s elections matter for people outside of the country. Danforth and Zama attempt to answer this question in the first hour of today’s episode and devote the second part of their conversation to a discussion about Turkey’s political future, its orientation toward the West, and what, if anything the United States can do to improve relations with Ankara. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/30/2023

In Episode 314 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with novelist, sociologist, and theologian Tara Isabella Burton about America’s new religions, the evolution of the self in contemporary culture, and what it all means for the future of Western society. Tara Isabella Burton’s writings about religion and culture provide some of the sharpest, most insightful commentary about contemporary life that you will find anywhere. Her two most recent books explore the revival of religious practices and the evolution of what she calls self-making (i.e., the increased focus on oneself and one’s own experiences as the focal point of human experience) in Western society. Her insights are nothing short of revelatory. In their conversation, Tara and Demetri discuss three different manifestations of religion that Burton has identified: (1) social justice culture, (2) techno-utopianism, (3) and what she calls “right-wing atavism,” an ideology whose more extreme elements combine nostalgia for proto-humanity with a sort of black-pilled nihilism that rejects both contemporary progressive society and any possibility of meaningfully escaping from it. While the first hour of their conversation is dedicated to exploring these themes it isn’t until the second hour that Demetri and Tara Isabella Burton begin to discuss their implications for contemporary life and for the durability of our institutions in the face of social and political upheaval. What our response to these changes should be and why there are reasons to be hopeful form an important part of that discussion. If you want to listen to that part of the conversation you can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/22/2023

In Episode 313 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Demetri asked Bob onto the podcast to help sort through the noise of this latest financial news cycle as it pertains to the debt ceiling debate, regional bank stocks, the Fed’s fight against inflation, and where we find ourselves in the economic cycle. Many have been surprised by how long it’s taken for an economic recession to materialize given the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve’s rate rises. Demetri and Bob discuss what might explain this and what it means for investors if supply-side factors to the economy make combating inflation difficult for the Fed to do without undermining the economy’s ability to supply the capital needed ameliorate it. This episode is an excellent overview of where we find ourselves today and provides an especially useful framework for thinking about the important issues facing the economy and markets over the next six months to twelve months. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/15/2023

In Episode 312 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofians speaks with Jean Twenge, a researcher and professor of psychology who has written extensively about generational differences. Jean Twenge explains what we know about every generation born since 1925, arguing that the strongest candidate for explaining generational change is advancements in technology. Twenge spends the first hour discussing what we know about changes in fertility rates, political affiliation, income, wealth, sexuality, gender norms, attitudes toward life, mental health, and much more. The episode’s second hour is devoted to understanding Millennials and Generation Z. Jean and Demetri discuss how each of these generations is unique, what explains these differences, and what can be extrapolated about future economic, political, and other sociological trends by looking at the data. This conversation is relevant to anyone, whether you work in politics, manage money, or are trying to identify future economic opportunities informed by changes in consumer behavior. It also provides an opportunity to reflect on not only the differences between generations but also on what each generation has in common, which is more than you might initially expect. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/09/2023

In Episode 311 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Serhii Plokhy, the director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University and a leading authority on Ukraine, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Plokhii has published extensively on the international history of World War II and the Cold War and he joins Demetri to discuss the subject of his latest book on the Russo-Ukrainian war and the return of history. This is a conversation about national identity, the disintegration of empires, and what will follow from the largest European land war since WWII. How will the Ukraine war's outcome inform the evolution of the international order? And what are the most compelling theories that explain Putin’s decision to invade in the first place? Was it to build a ‘greater Russia’ as some of his detractors have claimed or did Moscow face legitimate security concerns from NATO enlargement that on their own can explain the course of events? The answer to this last question holds important lessons about the future of European security and US policy toward China, which is what Demetri and professor Plokhy spend part of the second hour discussing. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/28/2023

In Episode 310 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with writer and author Jared Dillian in what was originally aired as a Live Q&A for members of the Hidden Forces Genius Community. Jared is the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals focused on gauging and capitalizing on changes in market sentiment. He’s also the author of several successful books including his most recent, “We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards,” which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture, music, and sex. This conversation ranges from discussions about market psychology, national security, and politics to things like how to handle financial success, how to use Twitter with integrity, and even what happens to us when we die. If you want to join in on these conversations in the future and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes regular Q&A calls like this one, access to special research and analysis provided by our contributors, in-person events, and dinners like our upcoming one in London on June 29th, you can do that at HiddenForces.io/subscribe and if you still have questions, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io and Demetri or someone from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/20/2023

In Episode 309 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jacob Siegel, a senior editor at Tablet magazine and the author of a widely shared article about disinformation titled, “A Guide to Understanding the Hoax of the Century.” The ‘hoax’ according to Siegel is the information war itself, which he believes conflates the anti-establishment politics of domestic populists with acts of war by foreign enemies turning the American people into targets of the US government and its intelligence agencies. Demetri and Jacob spend the first hour of their conversation trying to wrap their arms around this sprawling leviathan of public and private surveillance that has left so many of us feeling increasingly disoriented and vulnerable to being manipulated and controlled. They discuss what disinformation is, what it isn’t, and how the information ecosystem has become a battlefield for narrative warfare and mass psychological operations conducted against civilians across Western countries. In the second hour, Siegel and Kofinas debate what can be done to solve the problem. Demetri is of the view that we can and should regulate the large tech platforms by introducing governing incentives, epistemic objectives, and non-partisan transparency that can produce higher quality information and while also being more conducive to consensus building. Jacob shares his views, which in some instances differ from Demetri’s in what was a spirited debate and lively conversation. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/17/2023