Hidden Forces

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discusses the shifting role of the U.S. in the global economy. He argues that America's transition from a security provider to a protection racket is reshaping international relations. Posen delves into the implications for U.S. Treasuries and the potential revival of industrial ecosystems. He also critiques the Biden administration's industrial policy execution, explores the impact of globalization on the U.S. middle class, and connects declining social trust to political polarization.

In this engaging conversation, Paul Kingsnorth, a novelist and former environmental activist, discusses his spiritual journey from activism to Orthodox Christianity. He critiques our mechanized worldview and the rise of AI as a false God that may lead us to cultural decline. Kingsnorth reflects on the apocalyptic nature of our times, highlighting how traditional pillars of culture have been replaced. He offers practical responses for rebuilding local culture and setting tech boundaries to help reclaim our humanity.

Douglas Rushkoff, a media theorist and writer, delves into how the internet transformed from a countercultural utopia into a platform for technofeudalism. He reflects on his journey from a communal upbringing in Queens to becoming a leading critic of digital culture. The conversation highlights the dangers of digital disembodiment, the loss of authentic connections, and the implications of corporate influence on society. Rushkoff urges listeners to reclaim agency and foster genuine relationships in an increasingly mediated world.

Charles Calomiris, former Chief Economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, dives into the transformative potential of stablecoins in banking. He discusses how stablecoins could revolutionize real-time payments and reshape monetary policy while highlighting the implications of the 'Genius Act.' Calomiris addresses antitrust concerns, the future of U.S. government debt, and how these digital currencies might challenge the dollar's dominance. He envisions a more competitive banking landscape where loans and deposits are separated for enhanced economic stability.

Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist at the U.S. Treasury, dives deep into thematic investing. He discusses the concepts of localization and global entropy, exploring their influence on economic growth and inflation. Barth critiques the pillars of Western power, arguing we've peaked in mythology, economic dominance, and military superiority. He paints a future where the global order may splinter, with emerging economic models challenging Western capitalism. Their conversation highlights shifting geopolitical dynamics and the evolving landscape of finance.

In this engaging conversation, economist Sony Kapoor, who has advised global governments and major investment funds, discusses the urgent need for a portfolio rebalancing amidst shifting economic dynamics. He explains how developed countries face demographic challenges and stagnant growth, driven by excessive debt and political instability. Kapoor analyzes how AI might impact productivity but warns of its limitations in mitigating declining birth rates. The dialogue also covers capital misallocation and emerging market opportunities in a complex financial landscape.

A leading realist scholar discusses the decline of the American-led global order. Cultural erosion and political polarization are breaking down traditional norms. He draws parallels between the current U.S. and France in the 1930s, highlighting the risks to democracy. The conversation explores how a new moneyed elite may manipulate these changes. They also address the impact of scapegoating and the collapse of shared narratives, revealing the dangers of an increasingly fractured political landscape.

Bruno Maçães, a geopolitical strategist and former Minister of European Affairs for Portugal, shares insights from his book "World Builders". He introduces a provocative theory framing geopolitics as a competition in world building rather than mere territorial control. The discussion highlights the shift in global order as the U.S. steps back and China rises, shaping a new technological landscape. Topics include the implications of AI on global governance and the evolving nature of power, raising critical questions about individual freedom and international relations.

Sam Freedman, a former senior policy advisor in the UK's Department for Education and author of 'Failed State', discusses the deep-rooted dysfunction in British governance. He explores the dangers of centralization, the dominance of executive power, and how modern media dynamics are shaping politics. Freedman emphasizes the need for radical reforms, including decentralization and enhancing parliamentary scrutiny, to restore trust. He draws parallels with the U.S. governance crisis, highlighting common challenges in Western democracies.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, brings a wealth of experience advising institutional investors. He discusses how structural forces are reshaping the economy, arguing recessions are now 'canceled' due to fiscal dominance. The conversation covers shifting demographics, geopolitical fragmentation, and how AI is altering job markets. Deluard also addresses the potential for an Asian-driven oil demand shock and offers insights on constructing a 'fiscal dominance' portfolio to navigate this new macro landscape.