The Naked Pravda

On Tuesday, November 8, the U.S. is holding midterm elections — all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested, in addition to gubernatorial races in 39 states and territories. In all this politicking, mainstream support for Ukraine remains strong, but it was only a few years ago when Donald Trump declared at his inauguration: “We assembled here today our issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power, from this day forward: a new vision will govern our land, from this day forward, it’s going to be only America first. America first.” 74.2 million Americans voted for Trump, just two years ago, even after the U.S. House of Representatives impeached him for withholding military aid to Kyiv in order to influence Ukraine to announce an investigation into Joe Biden and to promote a discredited conspiracy theory that Ukraine, not Russia, was behind interference in the 2016 presidential election. So, what happens to American support for Ukraine if U.S. partisan politics shift again? Timestamps for this episode: (4:48) Aaron Schwartzbaum, fellow in the FPRI Eurasia Program, founder of the FPRI’s BMB Russia newsletter, and host of the podcast “The Continent” (19:06) Dr. Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor in Department of International Relations at Mechnikov National University in Odesa, where he’s also the director of the Center for International Studies. Currently a visiting professor at Tufts University in Massachusetts.Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

The Chinese government has consistently threatened to take Taiwan by force if the government there declares formal independence. American politician Nancy Pelosi completed a two-day trip to Taiwan in early August, enraging Beijing, raising regional tensions, and thrilling Russian state propagandists, who are clearly desperate to draw the two most powerful countries on Earth into a shooting war that would presumably weaken Western resolve to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Two months after Pelosi’s visit, fears of a war over Taiwan have receded, but the conflict could flare up again at any time, raising questions about what might happen if fighting does break out over the island. And if China invaded Taiwan, what would it mean for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? For answers, The Naked Pravda spoke to two regional experts. Timestamps: (6:49) Dr. Sergey Radchenko, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (18:24) Dr. Natasha Kuhrt, senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College LondonКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

When announcing a draft to reinforce Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin accused the West of “nuclear blackmail,” claiming that “high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries” have endorsed the “possibility and admissibility” of using nuclear weapons against Russia. In the same remarks, Putin vowed to use “all available weapon systems” to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity” — a precarious position now that Moscow has annexed four more Ukrainian regions without even controlling the territories militarily. In his annexation speech on September 30, Putin focused mainly on the evils of the West: centuries of European colonialism, decades of American militarism, progressive values that he described as Satanism, and what he called the U.S.-created precedent of twice attacking Japanese cities with nuclear bombs. Considering that the Kremlin has repeatedly described its victory in Ukraine as essential to Russia’s existence, there are rising concerns about how the Putin regime will respond if its troops continue to lose ground in the war. Will he order a nuclear strike? The Naked Pravda asked two experts in nuclear weapon strategy and nuclear crises. Timestamps: (3:52) Dr. Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group in Brussels and cohost of the podcast “War & Peace“ (16:18) Dr. Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and author of the forthcoming book “Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine”Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

As acting president, elected president, prime minister, and then president again, Vladimir Putin has now ruled Russia for almost 23 years. And it doesn’t look like he plans to retire any time soon. Following amendments to the Russian constitution in 2020, Putin is now able to run in two more presidential elections. This means he could potentially remain in power until 2036, at which point he’ll be turning 83.  Putin is indeed getting old, and ever since he ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, there's been a lot of speculation about his future. With his seventieth birthday coming up on October 7, reports and rumors about the state of Putin’s health abound. But death by old age is probably years (if not decades) away for a man whose physical survival is one of Russia’s greatest national security priorities. Of course, no one lives forever, and just like Mikhail Gorbachev and Queen Elizabeth II, Vladimir Putin will one day pass away. But what if he dies suddenly, while still in office? What happens then? The Naked Pravda turns to three experts for insights into the potential domestic and global consequences of Putin’s death. Timestamps for this episode: (6:08) Fabian Burkhardt, a post-doctoral Research Associate at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, on how Putin’s death would impact Russia’s domestic politics — and political elites — in the short term.  (16:04) Ronald Grigor Suny, the William H. Sewell Jr. Distinguished University Professor of History and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan, on the death of Stalin and the Soviet Union’s transfer of power problem.  (25:06) Domitilla Sagramoso, Senior Lecturer in Security and Development in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, on Putin’s foreign policy legacy and what it means for the future trajectory of Russia’s relations with the wider world. Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

Meduza’s only English-language podcast, The Naked Pravda, returns for a third season tomorrow on Friday, September 23. Throughout the new season, each show explores a hypothetical event and its potential consequences for Russia and its relationship with the rest of the world. On upcoming episodes, Meduza asks journalists, scholars, and other experts about the context and possibilities behind the questions that keep people up at night: What if Putin dies tomorrow? What happens to the Ukraine war if China invades Taiwan? What if sanctions against Russian commercial aviation lead to a disaster in the air? What happens to Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov if Russia loses in Ukraine? The Naked Pravda’s “What If?” season is all about the big and unanswerable questions that animate the public’s interest in news stories and tease our imagination about what comes next. The first episode will be available tomorrow.Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

Meduza welcomes European Council on Foreign Relations Senior Policy Fellow Kadri Liik for a discussion about her recent article, “Putin’s Archaic War: Russia’s Newly Outlawed Professional Class – And How It Could One Day Return,” where she argues that the invasion of Ukraine is “effectively de-modernizing Russia” and derailing processes that could have put the country on a less aggressive, more professional path. A specialist in Russian domestic and foreign policy and in relations between Russia and the West, Liik joined The Naked Pravda to address the issues she raised in her essay. Timestamps for this episode: (2:07) How does the invasion of Ukraine trigger the “de-modernization” of Russian society and foreign policy? (4:36) How does Soviet foreign policy compare to the diplomacy Moscow practiced before and since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine? (5:58) What are the “modern” aspects of Russia’s recent and current foreign policy in Syria and Africa? (9:14) How long will the war’s de-modernization plague Russian society and policymaking? (11:23) To what degree is Russia now “de-modernized” and ostracized globally (not just in the West)? (15:00) What will it take for the West to come to a consensus with the Global South about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? (16:47) How does the “decolonization” debate in Western academia and activism fit into all this? Does this perspective have traction inside Russia? (21:46) What are the “needs” that fueled Russia’s “homegrown” democratization potential before the February invasion?Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

After Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, five Hollywood giants — Disney, Warner Bros, Universal, Sony Pictures, and Paramount — all stopped releasing new films in Russia. Netflix, which was producing multiple shows in Russia for the domestic market, has also suspended all service there. Amazon Prime has halted streaming in Russia, too. All this comes just as the entertainment industry was hoping to rebound from two years of pandemic shutdowns and concerns. Russian movie theaters are now on the verge of collapse, and the country’s streaming services — seemingly poised for a major expansion before the war — are scrambling to keep subscribers by restocking their catalogues and hoping for success with original programming. To find out where Russians will find their future entertainment, Meduza turned to three experts in the nation’s television and film industries. Timestamps for this episode: (2:48) AR Content Creative Executive Ivan Philippov breaks down what trends in Russian entertainment (9:01) Kinopoisk podcast host and former editor-in-chief Lisa Surganova explains the current state of Russia’s streaming services (16:00) Filmmaker and film and television researcher Egor Isaev weighs the loss of coproduction deals with Hollywood studios and U.S. streaming services (23:02) Surganova explains how TV and cinema funding work in Russia (29:14) Philippov looks at the struggling movie business from the Kremlin’s perspectiveКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

Earlier this week, the European Union passed a landmark agreement banning most Russian oil imports into the region by the end of the year, though the embargo features a temporary exemption for imports delivered by pipeline in order to overcome opposition from landlocked Hungary. In late May, the U.S. Treasury declined to extend a license that allowed Russia to make payment on its sovereign debt to U.S. holders, possibly accelerating the prospect of Russia defaulting on its government debt. To discuss these major developments and more happening in the sanctions campaign against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, The Naked Pravda welcomed back Dr. Maria Shagina, a political risk analyst and sanctions expert who works as a Diamond-Brown Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards, and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Timestamps for this episode: (1:48) What’s the significance of Russia’s current account surplus? (6:15) Has Western unity on economic sanctions against Russia peaked, or is the EU and U.S. capable of more? (7:52) What determines the divisions inside the European Union when it comes to confronting Russian aggression? (11:11) What are the main drivers of a potential global food crisis? (12:28) Does the West risk alienating large parts of the world by forcing higher energy costs on the Global South? (19:05) How have the sanctions against Russia affected the push for greener energy sources? (23:25) Have economic realities now put Russia definitively on an eastward trajectory? How fundamental is this to the country’s future development?Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

Through speeches by political leaders and in television broadcasts that have blanketed the country (as well as new territories recently seized by force), the Kremlin has argued breathlessly that Ukrainian statehood is a historical accident weaponized by Russia’s enemies. This rhetoric, which essentially denies the existence of an independent Ukranian identity, has reached not only millions of civilians but also the Russian troops now in Ukraine, where journalists, the local authorities, and international observers have been documenting and cataloging these soldiers’ acts of violence against noncombatants. As the world learns more about the atrocities committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukrainian law enforcement and officials throughout the West have begun the process of investigating, designating, and prosecuting these acts. For a better understanding of this work and its challenges, The Naked Pravda spoke to four experts about war atrocities in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, focusing particularly on genocide as it’s understood both legally and in terms of history and politics. The scholars who joined this discussion: Erin Farrell Rosenberg, an adjunct professor at the University of Cincinnati’s College of Law, and an attorney specializing in international criminal law and reparations Eugene Finkel, an associate professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University, and the author of “Ordinary Jews: Choice and Survival during the Holocaust” Dirk Moses, a professor of Global Human Rights History at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the author of “The Problems of Genocide: Permanent Security and the Language of Transgression,” and the senior editor of the “Journal of Genocide Research” Maria Varaki, a lecturer in international law at the War Studies Department at King’s College London, and the co-director of the War Crimes Research Group Timestamps for the main sections of this episode: (4:15) The legal terms used to designate mass violence and crimes in warfare, and genocide’s special legacy (36:11) How war crimes and genocide are prosecuted, establishing genocidal intent, and upholding justice (1:04:21) The politics of genocide allegations, and the consequences of taking them seriouslyКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

The past nine weeks of all-out war have completely upended civilian life throughout Ukraine. After withdrawing from around Kyiv and Chernihiv in late March, Russian forces are ostensibly refocusing their invasion on taking Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions. With many cities, towns, and villages already in dire humanitarian situations, civilians living in these areas are faced with the difficult choice of attempting to evacuate or bracing themselves for an escalated offensive. Meanwhile, residents of the Kyiv region are clearing the wreckage Russian forces left behind and trying to adjust to a “new normal.” For insight into civilian life in some of Ukraine’s most wartorn areas, Meduza turned to two Ukrainian experts who have been reporting on the ground throughout the war.  Timestamps for this episode: (1:38) Maria Avdeeva, research director at the European Expert Association, on documenting Russian war crimes to combat disinformation and the critical humanitarian situation in Kharkiv.  (12:30) Journalist and Public Interest Journalism Lab co-founder Nataliya Gumenyuk on the atmosphere in Kyiv, how local leaders and civilian volunteers keep Ukrainian towns running, and the humanitarian situation in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions.  (23:45) Avdeeva on why the local government in Kharkiv is clearing debris and planting flowers while still under attack.  (25:42) Avdeeva and Gumenyuk on rebuilding Ukraine after — and during — the war.  (31:00) Gumenyuk on what makes reporting on this war different and what she wants international audiences to know about Ukraine.Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно