Are oil and gas markets too complacent about the current geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which accounts for around one third of global seaborne oil trade? Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial thinks so. In this week's pod, he explains how an escalation of tensions beyond the Hamas-Irael war could see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and propel oil and LNG prices to USD 200/bbl and USD 100/MMbtu respectively – dwarfing the peaks during the 2022 energy crisis.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Saul Kavonic, Senior Research Analyst, MST Financial. 

For the first time in 17 years, Germany became a net electricity importer in 2023, largely due to expensive fossil fuels which meant power from its neighbours was cheaper than that domestically generated. Carbon emissions in the country also plummeted but is the drop permanent as the country looks to transform its power system? Listen to a discussion on the choices facing Germany and the pros and cons of splitting its single power market zone.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Fabian Huneke, Project Lead Energy Transition, Agora Energiewend

Europe’s net-zero targets for 2050 are ambitious, but the roll-out of renewable energy will not be successful without a significant boost to flexibility in power markets. Listen to a discussion on the prospects for batteries, both giga and household, in the energy transition and where the hotspots are in Europe. Could new technology such as sodium-ion be a game changer for energy storage?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sam Ebohon, Director Flexibility, Baringa Partners

Cross-border electricity cables are controversial. For some they provide supply security while others believe they increase prices in markets used to low energy costs. Listen to a discussion on the impact the power links had amid a period of extremely cold weather in the Nordic region. In addition, what is the outlook for wholesale prices in the coming weeks and months – could Finland see a return of EUR 800/MWh?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GEO; Odd Gunnar Jakobsen, Analyst, Volt Power Analytics.

Germany faces a freeze on many counts over the coming weeks. Firstly, a cold snap is likely to send power prices spiralling. In addition, a budget freeze could hamper the country’s plans to meet its decarbonisation targets after a court ruled the EUR 60bn earmarked for its green transition was illegal. How will Europe’s largest energy consumer afford to keep the lights on?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

A detailed discussion on key energy issues in 2023 and expectations for 2024, including drops in energy prices, geopolitical factors in Norway and Germany, challenges in Finland's energy sector, political struggles in Norway, renewables sector challenges, offshore wind prospects in Norway and Germany, and energy sector forecasts and global market analysis.

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.Host: Richard SverrissonGuests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Gas storage is ample, the weather has remained largely mild and French nuclear availability has returned to pre-Covid levels. However, given the escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalemate in Ukraine, several risks remain ahead of the winter season. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for prices amid a very jittery market. Also, will the EU impose sanctions on Russian LNG?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Henning Gloystein, Director for Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia;               Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG.

A bidding error in the Nordic spot power market could be the costliest fat finger event ever in European energy markets – both in terms of financial losses but also the reputational damage for the electricity system and the companies involved. Listen to a discussion on the events that led to EUR -500/MWh power prices and why some Finns treated it as Black Friday. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Maarit Uusitalo, Manager, Market Solutions, Fingrid ;Riku Merikoski, Senior Power Analyst, Axpo; Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway. 

Stephen Woodhouse, Director Afry Management Consulting, and Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel EnAppSys, discuss the pros and cons of locational prices in the UK electricity market, including the benefits and challenges of transitioning to a zonal market. They explore the implications of a centralized dispatch system, the comparison to European intraday markets, and the ongoing debate between nodal and zonal pricing. They also address the potential impact on existing contracts with a Contract for Difference (CFD).