Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Gerard is a senior fellow with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS after nearly 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community. From 2018 to 2021, DiPippo was a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council, where he led the intelligence community’s economic analysis of East Asia. He also was a senior economic analyst at the CIA focused on East Asia, South Asia, and global economic issues. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, structural pressures vs zero-COVID policy, how China sees the Russia-Ukraine war, and much more.

Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School’s Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.

Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing. Previously Igor was the CIO for ADG Capital Management LLP from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that he spent 9 years at IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB where he was a Partner and Head of Portfolio Management and Research. Igor graduated from Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1986 where he obtained a Master’s degree in Computer Science. In this podcast we discuss how to model central bank reaction functions, use of valuation models, how to manage risk, and much more.

Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.

The Doomberg team are energy gurus amongst other things. They are the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and C-suite executives. Its principals have decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity and finance.

Robert is a systematic futures trader, writer, and researcher. He is the author of several books on systematic trading including ‘Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems’ and the upcoming ‘Advanced Futures Trading Strategies’. Before becoming independent, Robert worked for AHL, one of the leading systematic hedge funds, which is part of the Man Group. He was responsible for the creation of AHL's fundamental global macro strategy, and then managed the funds multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio. In this podcast, we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, how to avoid overfitting and better back-tests, which frequency of trading works best, and much more.

Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).

Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).

Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss: 1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.

Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss: 1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.