Talking Data

Welcome to the thirteenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. Today’s topics are Inflation, Bond Issuance and the Bond Vigilantes. • U.S. CPI disappoints away from core commodities - Are TIPS breakevensattractive? - When could inflation become a noteworthy story? • The Federal Reserve is keeping a tight leash on volatility - Issuance will be ballooning, is this QE forever? See Quarles. - Will Powell et al push purchases further out the curve before year-end? - Has the Fed's support of credit markets run its course? • The quest for safety or safe havens - Will U.S. Treasuries offer diversification? - Where are investors to turn? For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

• Welcome to the twelfth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. • Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. Topics Include: • Politics - The Election - Fiscal Stimulus • COVID-19 - A second wave coming? - Vaccine/Therapeutics • The Economy - The progress on re-opening For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

• Welcome to the eleventh edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. • Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. • U.S. unemployment claims remained elevated at 840,000 last week as the labor market flashes signs of a slowdown and more layoffs become permanent. • CA can't count! How is that affecting claims? - The state currently accounts for over 28% of all initial claims in the country. Prior to the pandemic, the state typically accounted for 10%-20% of all initial claims in the country. - Once they get rid of the fraud, will the numbers DROP? • What does Google Search say about jobs? - The job applications topic has retreated over the past two weeks. JOLTS job openings corroborate the slowdown, falling in August for the first time in four months. • The reopening is slowing - Back in June, the consensus was expecting a massive growth quarter of more than 11%. This forecast has been falling hard and is now just 3.58%. While 3.5% is a decent quarter, there are no assurances this forecast is done falling. For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

Welcome to the tenth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science. We have been asking when the bond market will wake up. Today we will be discussing if we are starting to see signs of life. Topics Include: • Are Long-end yields and inflation at a critical juncture? - Will yields rise or fall into the end of 2020? 2021? - When could inflation (core or headline) finally pierce 2% YoY? • How will further fiscal stimulus and a Biden victory factor in? - Do deficits matter? - Can the Fed counter-act with dovish policy? • Investors are already positioned/hedged for higher yields, does this matter? - How does the Fed's QE impact rates?Investors are already positioned/hedged for higher yields, does this matter? - How does the Fed's QE impact rates? For more information, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com

Welcome to the ninth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. The Presidential Election is on everyone’s mind including investors. We have had the first debate, what are the changes in the Polls versus the Betting Markets? • Biden is leading in the polls - Betting markets see a Closer Race than the Polls - Investors Align with the Betters • If the Polls are Correct, this is Not Discounted in the Markets • How do you perceive the Election is going to impact the financial markets? - Who is better for the Markets? Trump or Biden? • Trump’s Approval Rating and the Generic Ballot • A Listener had a Question: What if there is not a Clear Winner? - If it is January 20, 2021 and no one has been declared a Winner, what happens next? For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

Welcome to the eighth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data, which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. In today’s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the second wave of COVID. Topics Include: • Europe is having a second wave. What does it mean? - How bad is it and what are the changes? - Will/can it spread to the US? • Will a second wave stall financial markets/the economy? - Valuations are high. The market needs faster growth that justify current levels. - The problem is the economy is stalling and a second wave will pull back economic activity even further. • Will any of this move interest rates? - Higher rates implied a return on inflation and lower rates imply a serious economic downturn. Either is a problem for risk assets. • Will a "medical bailout" save us? - The game changer is a vaccine or treatment. But when? - goodjudgement.io says "not before July 1." For more information please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com

Welcome to the seventh edition of our podcast series: Talking Data, which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. In today’s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the bond market. • How quiet is the bond market? - Tightest range in history - Lowest measures of volatility ever - Ignoring commodities - Ignoring other markets (the VIX) • Why so low? - The Fed's massive QE - Promises to not raise rates for three years - Potential yield curve control by the Fed - Quiet inflation • What gets it moving? - A serious "risk off" event - on par with this spring. - A big recovery in the economy (vaccine and return to normal) - A rise in expected inflation • What does more bond market volatility mean? - If volatility comes via falling yields, a market signal that a serious economy decline is coming. - If volatility is via rising yields, a market signal that inflation is returning... so much so that the Fed might have to reconsider no rate hikes for three years. For further information please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

Welcome to the sixth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data, which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. In today’s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the state of the economy. Topics Include: • The Rise of Alternative Data   - What kind of data do we use? • What does the Alternative Data say?   - Mobility/Airlines   - Restaurants   - Small Business Activity • What do Economists think?   - Q2 and Q3 GDP forecasts   - Q4 GDP forecasts • Other concerns   - Rising Infection Counts in Europe   - Overvalued/Manic Markets   - Election Uncertainty For further information please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

Welcome to the fifth edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. Our podcast features Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. In today’s installment, Jim will provide his insight on the market correction and yesterday’s Fed meeting. Topics Include: • Speculation in the options market   - How big has this market become?   - A Retail Mania • Valuation in the market   - Highest since 2000 • Why Not Bearish?   - The difference now is the Fed/Government are heavily involved in the markets.   - The Fed is not going down without a fight   - Significance of the Fed meeting yesterday Thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, Arbor Research & Trading is an institutional research and brokerage firm. Our two most prominent research offerings are Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science. For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.

Welcome to the fourth edition of our new podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. In today’s installment, we will be discussing the Election and the markets. Topics include: • Betting Markets vs. the Polls for the U.S. Presidential Election. • Significance of the upcoming debate. • What is the impact on the market if we have a contested outcome. If it takes weeks or months to declare a winner, how do you think the market will react during that time frame? • Let’s consider this scenario. It is ninety-days post-election. What do equities do with a Biden victory in comparison to a Trump victory? Thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, Arbor Research & Trading is an institutional research and brokerage firm. Our two most prominent research offerings are Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science. For further information on Arbor Research, Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science, please contact Gus Handler at gus.handler@arborresearch.com.